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The ones I found for 4 keys were uncraft, I can't seem to find any cheap ones.
Yeah 5 keys is good for this. Uncrafts are 2-2.5 keys now.
4 keys is too low but 5 seems to be a good medium at this time.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3066304
I typically like to judge a price based on what people are willing to pay, not what sellers demand. Here are a few examples I've found from recent TF2OP trades where people are willing to pay 4-5:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/1973408
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/2923459
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3069614
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3060226
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3086417
In that searching, I found a handful of *sellers* setting a buyout of 5-6. I also found some *buyers* who were lowballing at 4. I suggested 5 (12.5) ref, because it felt like a good middle ground for the demand.
I'm uncertain now. It seems to me there's a bit of a gap on this item, with no one willing to pay 6 keys, but no one willing to sell for 5. The Uncraft is easy to find for 3 keys though.
It's either 5 or 5.5. That's for sure. And there's also a high supply of uncrafts, which will undoubtly lower the price a little the upcoming week(s)
This is a good price.
I'd buy one at 5, can't bring myself to pay 6.
I think this would be a better price.