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These sell currently at 5+ keys (for today anyway) as you can see this one was sold for 6 keys (19 minutes ago from time of this post) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3715628 And I see some other trades selling at 5 to 6 keys, so 5 is fair which is 12.75 refined but eh it will most likely go down to 4-5 keys and stay that way (due to the fact it costs you 6 tickets to play and win these, without even a garantee that you'll get that same weapon you wanted)
And no offence punisher8470 :P probably you ment the same while you were showing us trades at 5-6 keys ;)
I am not offended, don't worry. I still think that my 11ref suggestion is fine, while those sell for 5-6 keys as of now, I don't see this price being stable in the next few hours.
Those increase in numbers as we speak, and I don't think they will be stable once they get at 4 keys. But maybe you're right, who knows.
I know I should base my suggestion on current prices, but oh well.
I apologize for my bad english, have a nice day.
You know what punisher you could also be right, that is the thing with new items ;) so let's see what the people decide... I already have mine and it will not leave my collection no matter what, even if it becomes worth 2 refined or something haha but I have been following this closely (specially with the flamethrowers)