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Scratch that last link (#3) it's uncraftable.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4355015
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4556121
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4435449
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4558462
A number of standing trades wanting to do 3 keys for it. Usually when I see a number of wishlists all at the same price on a expensive item, that tells me it's minimum price, not fluid trading price (see: all the people buying last breaths for 3 keys, all the people buying Dashin's for 2 keys, etc). On the other hand, there are a decent number of people interested in these trades, more than you usually see. I do think it's due for a drop, but... still not entirely convinced it should be right down to 3 keys. I'll be keeping an eye out, but staying neutral for the time being.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4435449
You above, posted this link. Many people selling. +1 from me.
This guy is buying a lot for 3 keys because price might go back up again after fall crate stops dropping.