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To show you what I mean about finding it cheaper:
When I was snooping through tf2op I saw this guy get one for 2 refined: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4514084
This guy is asking for 1 key: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4085259
At any rate 1-2 keys seems to be the going rate, but closer to 2 keys