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I have been monitoring the price of Earbuds in terms of Keys closely. For the past few months, I have recorded 20,000+ related transactions.
FAQ:
Q: From 26-27 Keys to 26-28 Keys isn't big of a change, why bother submitting?
A: Because backpack.tf has been a very successful spreadsheet maintained and used by the community. 26-27 is biased towards buyer's proof and 26-28 Keys is impartial towards both.
Q: Why not suggest 27 Keys instead of the range? 2 Keys range is like USD$2.5 wide.
A: Others have submitted but they didn't went well. Also, 2 Key range is only +/- 3.7%.
Q: Based on that chart, shouldn't it be 25-29?
A: No, 26-28 encompasses 92% of the transactions because standard deviation is usually 0.7 Keys. That 8% does not represent equilibrium.
Other comments welcome.
upvoted for science. Please take the time to understand the weight of this evidence, before chiming in with an anecdote about 3 buds.
Awesome work, base64. Thanks for sharing your knowledge here it's definitely appreciated!
I think my head just exploded.
I'm curious, what are the WA1D and SMA50 lines? I'd guess weighted average over one day for the former, but not sure on the latter.
@above
WA1D represents Weighted Average of 1 day of trade, you are right.
SMA50 represents the Simple Moving Average. At a given point X, the SMA50 is the average of previous 49 trades and X. The goal is to smoothen the line otherwise there will just be countless spikes jumping around. Ref: [url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simple_moving_average[/url]
26-28 is good. though i find most of my earbud purchases over paypal to be in the 32 USD range, which is equal to 26 keys (26x 1.25 = 32.50)
Up voted, too much evidence.
Agreed. Buds average 27 keys. Not 26.5 keys. Upvoted
If people are buying this item for 28 keys, does that mean all the 27-key-sellers are out of stock?
@xen
No. There is something called Price dispersion and people wont look through 400+ open trades at Outpost.
Unless there is a person who is willing to buy unlimited quantity of Earbuds at 28 Keys and managed to broadcast his intention over global TF2 Markets.
i.e. Some people buy at 28 keys ≠ They can afford the entire market.
The point of a language in this venue is to convey, in the simplest mean, why something should have that value, not to confuse people. If you've got proof, there's not any need to use polysyllabic words for the sake of using them. But you've got proof, so what do I care.
mnn, nice economic studies, upvote
Empirical - The word empirical denotes information acquired by means of observation or experimentation. Empirical data is data produced by an observation or experiment.
It's not science, it's maths. Normal distribution if I'm not mistaken, good job