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Current price, 1.3 keys, is equivalent to 3.33 refined. It is demonstrably less than that.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/41166582- Quite a few uncraftable Marxman available, it's not an item short in supply by any means
Fully untaken trades, ranging from 2.33 to 3 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5231335
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5285256
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5278219
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5270931
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5279529
Several Marxmen sold over the past few days at 1 key,
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5208566
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5242052
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5186322
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5127454
Supplementary trades
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5247753- One sold recently at 1.66
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5276605- Asking for 2 ref, spoken for but yet untraded
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5276653- Asking for Deus Ex- a 1 key item- spoken for but yet untraded and recently bumped
I put the 3 ref at a high point as I did see some offers of that quality on a couple trades over the past few days, 2.33 as a low point due to a trade still available at that point and a couple of trades that sold or were spoken for recently for even less.
Much more accurate range, great evidence.