I disagree, I found some for 3.66(or 1 key + 1 ref), the current price range seems fine to me.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5216613

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4987876

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5264521

This guy even had it up for 3 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5231498

By total fluke I went looking for this paint about four hours ago. On Outpost, there are quite a bit of sellers selling at the price suggested, but there were also about 5 or 6 sellers selling the paint for less than 4 ref. A few at 3.66, some at 3.55 (key and a ref) and one or two at 3.33 - 3.44. I bet you could find it for 3.66 on a trade server as well.

From first-hand experience I would have to vote no.

Edit: bought at 3.55 ref; the 3.33 seller was offline and I was impatient :)

Downvoted