First let's start off by noting there are 25 of these according to link #1. There are currently two users selling this on tf2op. Luckily there are long histories on both hats so we may be able to piece together a good suggestion from all the trade offers/sales.

We'll start with the history of #2. Let's first note that this is gifted and that can bring the price down for some. Current offers are a Stormy Storm Robin (1.3-1.6 Buds), Fetti Buckaroo (11-14 keys), and Fetti Tyrants (1.6-2 Buds). The Buckaroo nor Tyrants could be found as an offer, possibly made by other methods or one of the hidden/retracted offers. Owner of the Larrikin also owned a Fetti Tyrants and likely offered it. This user seems to be really interested in an uncraft Lid. Link #3 shows the current owner negotiating a trade for the hat. The v. bills, big kills, and bubbling fedora mentioned seemed to have gone to other users. There is a cauldron bubbles Charmer's Chapeau (4.6-5.9 Buds) that did change hands: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/2208655[/url]. Not sure if there were any sweets on either person's side in this trade.

Link #4 is the second lid available. It's not gifted but the item history, according to tf2op, is staggering. This hat has passed through the hands of scammers and item duplicators. Current seller claims offers of NnB Company Man (2.3-2.7 Buds), Stormy Waxy (3.3-4.2 Buds), Scorching Dead Cone (3-3.9 Buds) +25 keys, Hearts Pencil Pusher (1.8-2.3 Buds), Ghosts Bridage Helm (3-3.9 Buds) + 1 Buds, P.E. Brigade Helm (3-3.9) + 1 Buds, and G.E. Hottie's Hood (3.6-4.5 Buds) + G. Maul (7.33-8 Keys). Looking at previous trades, I was able to confirm the offers of the NnB Company Man, Stormy Waxy, Ghosts Brigade Helm, P.E. Brigade Helm + 1 Bud (Bud was retracted but seller omitted the change of offer)

Given the various offers, and taking overpay in unusuals into consideration, I've come up with the current price suggestion. If anyone has any different information leading to a different suggestion, let me know. I'm fine with removing this for a more accurate suggestion.

After I saw someone suggest an uncraft dead cone as .33 ref, I started looking into these rare uncrafts to determine what they might actually be worth.