I agree with this. I even had my trade up at 2.5 keys, and I still got one. I may have underpayed a little, but I still had 2 people add me within that day.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5442485

The guy on your first link that is selling at 3 keys, has successfuly buy them ar 2 keys+2 ref http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4863960 and now is trying to buy them at 2 keys+1 rec http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5742715 so price could even be lower than suggested, unvoted all the way, as a side note he is also successfuly buying the unique version at 2 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5084018