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I stupidly didn't grab the links while going through and another run through it immediately after would end me, so here's my quicker more roundabout evidence for those who need it.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/46786381 - So very, very, VERY many trying for 5-5.33 ref. It's severely overstocked, pretty clear that it isn't a reliable selling price anymore.
And on the flipside, all the quickbuyers wanting to grab them at one key.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5762892
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5402274
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3885897
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5842856
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5423782
Too many sitting and waiting to sell at 2 keys, too many sitting and waiting to buy at 1 key. Placing fair price dead in the middle.
Perhaps later I'll have another go through and grab the 1.5 key/4 ref unsold trades, but hopefully this will do for now.