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Your links show them being sold at 2 ref so shouldn't they drop in price instead?
They also show 2 buying for 3.6-4.3 ref and another purchasing for a key. If you go in order from left to right, I'm showing the highest I've seen them being sold and bought for, then the middle value (guy buying for a key), then the low values of people selling and buying for 2 ref. If you read the 200 characters up there, I said the price is all over right now, but we have a net average gain in value. Right now we're at a weird point for winter items: it's just barely the 1st snow in some places and the halloween event isn't even over yet. Some people are stocking up early in anticipation of the expected rise in demand for such items, and other could give a shit because it aint even winter yet. Would you not agree that 2 ref and 3.6-4 ref would average out to about 2.6-3 or about a key?
Still very possible to buy it for 2 ref, a couple of people paying above that and it magically isn't worth 2 ref?
5 minutes of searching outpost showed me this:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5858851 sold for a key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6112444 willing to trade 1 key item for it
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5930077 willing to trade a key and a ref worth of stranges (5 days ago too O_O)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5579143 Some guy offered him a key, then some outpost idiocy happened and he called him a retard. It looks like he ended up selling it to him for a key.
I couldn't find anybody else selling for 2 ref, I'm surprised I even saw those 2 days ago when I posted this :S The lowest I saw was 1 guy asking for 2.3 after going over 3 pages, and if I had the metal, I would have bought it from him. I saw tons of people buying for under 2 ref on the buying page, needless to say, none of them have a brown bomber yet.
Just got a gold, tagged bomber for 2.33. Still very possible to get below a key from someone who doesn't speculate everything like you.
And you're right, but you're still not disproving my point. My point was that the price is all over the place and the Average is a key.
You're finding low trades, I'm finding high, they all average out in the end to a key. It's a lot easier than submitting a post with the price being 2-4 ref. Seems kind of silly that way, instead I submitted a post with an average value based off of the wide amount of trades I saw.
Would you not agree that that's what this site should do, give people a general amount that people are selling/buying for? Would you not agree from the 18 or so Outpost links posted to this suggestion so far that they seem to average out to about a key, possibly more in fact? Between the 2-2.3 ref trades and the 3.6-4 ref trades, in addition to the ones I have shown with them actually using a key for the hat, would you not agree that this is an average value?
this isnt very much of a winter hat...
and winter is not a valid excuse...yet
People are generally expected to overpay when they offer items rather than metal/keys. Just saying, I don't feel the proof is enough. The current range seems fine.
again, 5 minutes on the ol' outpost
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5503249 sold 2 bombers for a key each
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6087130 willing to pay a hat worth a key and a craft hat for the bomber
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6124892 trading a 1.6 hat with a key paint on it, at the usual, take half's the paint value off of it, that's about 2.6-3 worth.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5823864 If you scroll down, someone offered this guy 2 keys for the brown bomber with a paint worth slightly under a key on it. Interpret this last one any way you want.
The painted ones tend to go for more because people figure they're still getting a discount compared to using the paint if that's the color they already wanted and searched for it.
Also, there are still people selling for less, which is why I feel the range is appropriate.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6026473
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6125439
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5110858
It seems easy enough to find them for under a key to keep that small range. Also, many of the trades asking for a key that I've seen aren't getting taken.
All the ones I've posted in the comments have been sold for a key or higher or were buyers offering things worth more than a key for them. Also, that last link shows a guy asking for over 2 keys for some reason...dont know why you posted that...
Plus, showing me 2 trades doesn't disprove my point that the average value is higher, hell even I threw down some 2 ref trades to make a point that these items are all over the place in price right now, you're just doing what I did.
Besides the 4 trades showing the rock bottom people are asking/ selling for, there's 4 here already showing people selling them for a pure key and 6 showing people overpaying with items, sometimes by as much as 1.3. Frankly, I should close this and come back with a higher value, but like I said, the price is all over the place and a key is a modest average.
And for fun, here's 2 more
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6037097 has a paint worth a ref on it, but sold for a key and a ref, so whether you think a hat with paint on it keeps half or all of the paint's value, it sold for at least a key.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6126003 has 2.6 for the paint, has 4 ref item for the bomber, also it's lvl 100, so arguably more than 4 ref.