This is a very long read, but I think it will help give an idea of how much I think this hat is worth. I realize that I do own one of the two existing copies of this hat and that this may seem like me trying to manipulate the price to be worth as much as possible, but please read through it and check out the evidence before downvoting.

Back when the first Trophy Belt was unboxed it was immediately put out on the market. As you can see in the first link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5772464 , it was sold shortly after for a Harvest Moon Big Chief + 2 Buds + 1 BMOC. However, this is not helpful since the value of a Harvest Moon Big Chief is currently unknown. I will list the trades that the three people who own this hat have up on TF2Outpost as well as some notable offers to help generalize a value for it.

Person #1 Trade: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6183610

Best offer so far is this Scout set: http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/54264

The Scout set is worth about 5 Buds altogether according to backpack.tf

Person #2 Trade: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5802730

According to one of the users that posted in the thread, Person #2 originally bought the hat for 5 Buds from someone else. The other offers are hard to put values on considering they are all unusual hats with new effects.

Person #3 Trade: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6111724

There are no offers.

Based on this information though, I am going to assume that the Big Chief could be worth about 4.5-5.5 Buds. With this assumption, the first Trophy Belt sold arguably for about 7.5-8.5 Buds. The hat was either resold or given to someone else, but there is no evidence on TF2Outpost of why the second owner of the Trophy Belt traded it to its current owner.

The second Trophy Belt was unboxed by an alternate account of the guy in this trade post: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5885833 and was the only one in the market for a while (I suspect there could have been a time when both trades were up at once and that's why the first person traded it for the Big Chief + 2 Buds + 1 BMOC right away before trying to collect any other offers). It was traded back and forth several times between the two accounts for reasons I do not know. TF2 Backpack Examiner claims that the Trophy Belt could still potentially exist in the original owner’s backpack (the alternate account), but upon investigation, there isn’t one in either of the two backpacks. Unfortunately, TF2 Backpack Examiner says that the Trophy Belt in my backpack cannot be found in the database: http://www.tf2items.com/item/1261349311

However, you can see the item history according to TF2Outpost here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/1231655681 to check for yourself that the hat isn't duped. Just oddly traded back and forth...I really wish the item history was a lot cleaner, but oh well.

I realize that while you are looking at the trade, you may be thinking I am trying to manipulate the price because I was the one who offered on it, but please bear with me here. The best pure offer on there was 7 Buds, however it was retracted because he ended up buying a Cloudy Moon Trophy Belt for 6 Buds as can be seen in this trade http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5860062 . I ended up buying it for the Stormy Storm Backwards Ballcap + 5 Buds. I originally bought the Stormy Storm Backwards Ballcap for about 2.66 Buds so I consider what I traded to be worth 7.66 Buds altogether.

Overall, I think that the current market value for this hat is 6.5-8 Buds given the evidence presented. If you disagree, please let me know what you think the value of this hat should be as well as your reasoning behind it. I just wanted to put this out there to get a price put on the hat.