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It's still 1 of 8, and a god tier unusual effect on a god tier all class hat. And having a "best offer" of $900 does not mean the hat is necessarily worth that much, just no one is able to top the offer (yet) heck those trades have been open for 1 week, offers don't come that quickly. Most god tier hats (like this one) take a good month to sell for it's actual value.
I wont mention what price I think this hat is/should be since I own one and that is considered "price manipulation" but all I gotta say is that 35-45 buds as a suggested price is not a fair value, the 45 is alright, but heck if anyone is selling this for anything near 35 I will buy it immediately, hit me up!
Also, you mentioned 2/4 on the market, of the 8 hats in existance. In such a tight market, If these 2 trades are able to sway the price towards 35-45 (from 40-52) then what about these 2 trades?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6221105 and
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5865450
The first is mine, lets ignore this because its considered "price manipulation." Plus its only been a day that that trade is open.
The second being Ambidextrous, where he has multiple unusual offers of 40+ buds. Note its been open for only 1 week.
We're talking pure here not unusual offers. Seen a cloudy moon company man with a price of 15 for a while. Seen no better offers in pure than $900 which is around 28 buds not 35.8. The previous price had a spread of 10 buds hence why I kept the same amount of spread. I could say 40-46 but again I havent seen offers in pure as high as 40 yet so that would be incorrect statistically as well.
Nope you don't include unusual offers when pricing. The highest pure offer/amount someone is willing to pay in cash/promos determines the value. The highest pure c/o I've seen which I am fairly sure someone is thinking of taking is apparently 36 buds (gathering) which means the guy must be considering accepting to make the guy gather for it. If I saw more consistent high offers of over 40 it'd be different.
Also the highest c/o's on the hats atm that aren't retracted is:
Moon Towering, Sunbeams AA, Burning Beanie, and Burning Hetman - Around 35 in unusuals
Misty Skull El Jefe, Beams Fukaamigasa, G. Energy Belt, Clean 2010 Juju, 1 Bud, and V. Half-Zatoichi - Less than 30 in mixed
Moon El Jefe and unusual sweets - The Jefe was selling clean for 26 before halloween so 26 + whatever unusual sweets he determines to add.
Harvest Tyro and Burning Honcho - around 33-40 in unusuals