Suggestion: What's in the Portal 2 Soundtrack Box? at 28–33 keys

Price Suggestion

~21.2 keys

27 votes up

50 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was closed Tue, 13 Nov 12 22:00:08 +0000 by A Distinctive Lack of Vincent.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Generally, this item can be bought for approx. $20-$30 (including shipping and tax). That sets us a benchmark price of say 20-24 keys on average. What makes the price of this item higher than the bench mark is the mystery factor based off past "what's in the" boxes, and the "limited" supply. A basic search on tf2 trading websites shows that offers for around a buds, such a bmoc, cancer unusuals, and crate 40s with sweets/crate 40 stranges are being turned down. Sellers are willing to offer buds equivalent prices, but buyers are asking more. So currently the buyer's offers of buds or equivalent are just not buying (unless it's pure buds, which is still often turned down). Based on that, I suggested a min price of slightly over buds, but with a range to the max price that allows for a fair middle ground of what the sellers are offering, and what the buyers are expecting, without getting ridiculous. One other factor to remember is a lot of owners are holding onto this item to see it's contents, this reduces active supply even more, and the "hype" seems to be driving the price up even more based on past "what's in the" box results. Even with new box codes being redeemed, not all of those boxes go on the market, further reducing entry supply as demand either remains constant or increases with anticipation.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6217233#/23388959

Item hoarding and price inflation group. When people realise this is still given out, and that it's nowhere near the rarity of the other boxes, they will stop paying twenty keys for them altogether.

And NO!(!), the price based on payment of goods isn't even 10 keys. I have no idea where you're getting 20 keys from, that's complete bollocks. Downvoted for all these reasons.

I won't argue about that group, it's kind of stupid what they're doing because it's not limited like past boxes, the prices they're asking is just plain dumb. I consider 1 key worth 1.20-1.40 USD, as that's generally what the black market value is. So 20 keys would equal around 25ish dollars based on that calculation (which is where on average the soundtrack is selling for). Now take a look at available supply CURRENTLY and tell me that you can get it for 10 keys or even 20. Chances are you can't, and because of this, I set the benchmark at the item's general value AT PRESENT. This is fueled even more by demand of the item, which I agree can seem a bit inflated at the moment, but that's the market. It's an unknown item with people not even selling for buds. 20 keys is very reasonable, and so is the price I suggested.

Further, I can say that buds are more common than people think, and it only holds a value so high because the people set it so. That's how markets are, items will carry a value based on factors such as past values, supply vs demand, rarity, and liquidity. I might feel buds worth only 10 keys, but that doesn't make it worth 10 key in the market. Currently, the box is not even selling for a buds, so your argument is more opinion, even if it may be a bit "hyped up", it's still around that price I suggested.

I see a massive wall of text, but no links to any actual DEALS made at OVER 28 keys. The only link you posted was a general search link of the Box itself. If you're putting forward a price suggestion YOU have to supply the data, not me.

Find me SEVERAL trades that have been dealt over 28 keys, in fact find me a SINGLE BUYING trade for over one Bud. (As in, 'I'm buying this box for 1.5 buds)

Rarity and the ability to obtain an item don't set the prices, the buyers do. And I can see very few buying at this price range suggested, it's been dropping every damn day since this item was released, and it will continue to drop as people find out that it isn't limited in any way (See other items like this, such as the G.Ballonicorn/Medic Bird).

Real data, please, not speculation or meaningless statements such as: 'it's rare', ' it's worth X because people pay Y'.

First off, that massive wall of text is how a market works. That's how both real markets and the tf2 market runs. Second, I can provide you with a few links if it'll help you understand that offers are being made for that amount.

Your argument about the price dropping is correct, but there’s an unknown on this item that's creating demand. Once that unknown is revealed, it’ll affect the price greatly. How it will effect it is not clear, but for now, that unknown is keeping the price of this item in the air. It fluctuates a lot because it's a tug of war between the buyers and sellers to set a price. Some sellers are high-balling like crazy, and some buyers are low-balling like crazy, that's just the market. For now, very few sales are going on at the 18-20 key price suggested here. Now, as for your links (I included my own too, look at the offers in the last 2 days to keep them recent) I’ll ask you to post a few links of them going for the current price range (18-20) to back up your argument against mine.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6153804

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6086766

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6026098

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6218186

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6221258

Please don't spout market nonsense. It doesn't work like that.

Now onto the links.

1.) Owner of trade joins price hiking group, one offer of BMOC (not in your range, dropping). Link one is not valid.

2.) NO OFFERS AT ALL, and has a post from price hike group. Not valid.

3.) One Huntsman (under your suggestion), one Trip A Badge (Falling rapidly). Post from price hike group. Not valid.

4.)C/O of about 18 keys. Post from price hike group. Not valid.

5.) HAHAHAHA, oh holy shit. It's YOUR trade. Are you really trying to proove something by posting YOUR OWN TRADE where YOU haven't accepted any offers? And so YOU think you can rise the price because YOU'RE not accepting offers?

Your own offers fall in the 18-20 key section. Non of your links are valid. None are sold, all of them have price hike messages, and your own trade is included. If I could report a suggestion I'd be reporting this.

Now find some REAL evidence. And stop spouting high-school Business Studies; it's offensive.

No, what's offensive is your attitude. I've been nice this whole time when you've just been an asshole. I've seen you complaining on tf2 outpost too, posting how it's only worth 8 keys. You're just as bad as those hoarding manipulators.

All those had offers over 20 keys. The offer was made BY THE BUYER and DECLINED BY THE SELLER, MEANING IT WAS OFFERED BUT NOT ACCEPTED. As to my offers, I didn't accept then because I thought I could get a better offer, you're really complaining about that? Almost every single listing now has a post by those manipulators, so is every single listing invalid? No, because idiots will post no matter what, that's that's beyond one's control. Lets see you post some listings selling for that much (18-20) then. Shut your big annoying mouth and post something productive, or kindly GTFO before I report your ass.

Oh and I'm soooooo impressed with your business knowledge, you spew non-sense and don't back it up, don't waste my time kid, go back to whatever grade you're flunking.

You can't report me. And again, you need to post VALID evidence at YOUR price range, NOT me. That isn't my job.

the fact you've posted your own declined offers on your own trade makes your entire suggestion void. You can't base it on what YOU'RE rejecting it at. It's based on ACTUAL sales.

Find several SALES (A transaction where two people trade goods) at YOUR suggested price range. Sales, not declined offers from people who are clearly trying to hike the price up of this 8-15 key item. It's your job, as the suggester, to FIND these ACTUAL sales. You haven't posted one piece of evidence at YOUR suggested price.

I'm not being an asshole here, I'm simply telling you that you're wrong, and unless you provide evidence my stance (and my vote) won't change. No one will upvote this without evidence. So find it.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6229262

C/O 20 keys.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6227875

20 keys.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6183564

20 keys.

Hey, look. Three ACTUAL offers on buyers. All at 20 keys, all offered very quickly. Real evidence. Now find me 28-33 key offers on these things, please (I'll save you some time, you won't find any). This is how you do it.

So offers don't count then? Someone who's willing to buy something for say 30 keys worth of items but posted on someone's listing that was expecting 6 buds, does that mean their listing is invalid? Sure you could say the same about people listing below 18 keys, but look at the volume of sellers vs the volume of buyers. There's a bid and an ask. Right now, most people are turning down buds prices, and a smaller amount are accepting around 18-20. I could post threads of a majority of the 13 or so pages of this item where people are declining offers of 25-30 keys, but that's where the market is now. If you see buyers for 18-20, buy, be my guest. Most people just look at the spreadsheet or where a “price” is posted and go off that, but that doesn’t determine the definite value. But there are more people willing to buy at bud-ish prices right now, the market is just flooded with idiots who expect 6 buds from an item that’s worth 20-30 dollars.

I don’t expect to change your mind, I’m just stating what I’ve seen after viewing the market for about a week. The price has absolutely declined, but it still remains above 25 keys.

Man, Pokey...learn how a free market works, first off, and then learn how the site works. If people aren't buying successfully at a price, and other people are turning down said price, then the price is too low. It doesn't matter if it is GOING to drop, because it will. This is a site for current, accurate pricing, and this is a price range with evidence and logic behind. So, please don't bitch about it...

You're all ~~gay~~ so passionate about this.

Doesn't matter. Chancellor Puddinghead will close this, and all others referring to this item since it contradicts his suggestion, regardless of proof.

Pixels, it's serious business *sunglasses*

Is it really that bad on here where it gets closed down because the admins post suggestions?

I found some below 28 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6258101 24 keys x 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6250480 17 keys

These are outliers, sellers selling for a price that's out of the common general range (Just like there are people selling for 6 buds, those are also outliers). There will always be a handful of people selling for less who undercut the market, but look at the volume of people selling at my suggested price vs the current price on here of 18-20 keys. My suggested price is much more commonly accepted now than the current price of 18-20 keys.

These are sellers that are not trying to hoard them for profit. These are real sellers and probably the only 'real' ones on outpost. Y'all just want to inflate the price of your stupid box's while getting free cd's from amazon.

I can tell you right now most people who bought the soundtrack could care less about it, they wanted the chance to make profit with the "What's in the Portal 2 Soundtrack" box. Chances are these sellers (selling for 18-20) are only selling them for that price because they look at prices on sites like this and the spreadsheet, and don't do any secondary market research. This reminds me of how the Runescape economy worked. There was Grand Exchange price (similar to prices set by the community on here, which can be viewed by all) and street price. There were always sales on the G.E. because it was automated and was easier, but the street price was usually higher than that, and people selling on the G.E. were missing out on profit because the G.E. price didn't update in real time. In the case here, the "posted" price, which is less commonly traded for, is 18-20 keys. However, a quick glance at tf2 outpost (ignoring the idiots high-balling 6 buds and low-balling 8 keys) with show most people are turning down buds-equivalent offers. So yes, there are currently traders selling at the 18-20 range, but the volume is a LOT higher to the price I suggested; that's why I set my suggestion to this price.

The people turning down bud offers are trying to get as much out of them as possible because they probably bought them for $15 from amazon.. Look the fact remains you can buy them alot cheaper on amazon...

So WHY should they be worth double or more in game..? So people can go buy another 2 and sell them for double? and then buy 4 and sell them for double then buy 8?.. ect ect... constantly making double double double every time..

Fact is this should not be allowed and is something i would consider as market minipulation. Also people who dont know what these are think they are worth something because of the sanvich and companion square box's ...

When infact they are worth like $15 from amazon.

Your whole argument is invalid because AMAZON sells them for cheaper. Also thanks for posting the link to amazon and proving how little it does cost and why it shouldnt cost double in game.

Just because it costs 15 dollars, doesn't mean that's the set price in-game. It can be either higher or lower, and in this case, it's higher. First of, 15 dollars doesn't include tax or shipping, and 15 dollars is the low end of the price spectrum to purchase the CD. It's a different price for different places of the world, that's why I mention the price above to be 20-30 dollars, to allow for calculations of extra things such as tax, shipping, even import fees and conversion fees. At the end of the day, it could be 15 dollars for you, but other people might have to pay more or less based on their location.

Second, not everyone can purchase items online. I know many people who have no means to purchase such an item online, or they don't trust online transactions. This creates a barrier, which in turn effects supply.

However, you are correct about the confusion going around. It is clearing up, but some people still believe only pre-orders of the CD gets you a code, which I can personally say isn't true because I ordered mine a week into November and still received it with both codes. The other piece of confusion is the belief this will be just like the sandvich box and the companion square box, and the box will shoot up to 8-9 buds; this is unlikely, but it still is effecting the price a little.

One final item I'd address is the group that's hoarding; although this is a frowned upon tactic both in real markets and on here, it is their item, and they can do it if they so wish. This does reduce supply, but there will be enough legitimate sellers to counteract this to keep this from going out of hand, so long as not every seller does hops of the hoarding bandwagon.

To follow up, the 24 keys offer is one I wouldn't argue against since it's not too skewed away from the data I've presented. However, the 17 key offer is what I mean when I say outlier. My main arguments are: the volume of traders (sellers) who hold the box who have had reasonable B/Os with good offers (by wiling buyers) on their listings, and data that is not outdated (an offer of a secret diary a week ago for example is invalid). Even if an offer is not accepted, it's a buyer willing to pay a set amount of keys/equivalent for this item, and the most common amount a willing buyer is offering on average is around my suggested price (at the very least, above the current price listed here of 18-20). Based on my arguments above, I conclude my suggested price is fair.

And yet nearly all those offers have been hidden by the people buying. That's retracted.

My links show actual sales of boxes, and until you post up some real links you don't have anything. Just walls of bollocks. Find some links, post them, because as it stands there are far more links on this trade and the original price suggestion, that show this range is way out.

You're missing the point, these offers are just as important as your sales going through; a willing buyer's offer is still a valid offer, and the volume of people offering that much (around my price) is quite high. Rejected/hidden or not, they still are willing to buy the item around the price I suggested, and not just a few, most people are. Those offers are just as capable of becoming sales, they're just offering to the people who expect 2-6 buds.

17 keys seems like a steal if your price is accurate, yet no one is touching it. One guy added to discuss, but the box remains unsold even after 12 hours of being listed.

17 keys does seem like a steal yes, but there's a lot of "trading amateurs" in our market. Lets face it, we both know the prices on here and/or the spreadsheet aren't in real time. By the time it takes people on here to vote and approve a new set price, chances are it's trading out of that range for any set number of reasons. By the time it finally gets updated, there are likely a few sellers who sold at the old price without doing any kind of secondary market research in that real time; they don't fully know that there might be no one selling at the price listed here, because street price is higher than the spreadsheet/website price listed. That's my theory on people who list it at the link you've provided. Another possibility is there are people who just want to quick-sell, get their keys, and get out.These are under-cutters in the market, and this falls back into my outlier argument. Even if it's been listed with zero replies/offers, that doesn't mean the price is what he listed at for the entire market. The majority of the holding (owners) market is currently turning down prices above the 18-20 key, so I suggested this price because it's something that's reasonable, offers of this price HAVE been made, and it's something that some of the less greedy traders are willing to accept. Lets face it, this thing isn't worth 2 buds, but one buds is reasonable considering the CD itself can go for 20-30 bucks with all the extra costs included, and the item itself is only around a week old..

Actually, the CD itself is $14.53 if you buy more than 1 at a time: http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/B009DJB8I2/ref=dp_olp_all_mbc?ie=UTF8&condition=all

That's no where near the price of a Buds.

Read a few of my other posts on here, $14.53 is not a uniform price, or the final price. Plus not everyone can buy online. More detail explanations posted below this post.

Some more stuff for you to explain away:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6269230 18 keys buyout

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6229262 3 different people offered theirs for 18-20 keys each all within one day

Again, this is a small portion of the market. Look at the volume of seller who are looking for buds+ compared to those who are selling for 18-20, the volume is much higher towards the price I suggested, and is skewed in the price direction of buds+. Those who selling for 18-20 can either be quick selling, have looked at the price on here and put up a sell offer at that price without a second thought, or just want to get rid of the item. The important thing with this item since it has so many "what if" factors is volume, and the volume of listings are expecting at least a buds, and buds equivalent offers are being made. One thing to note however is the market for this item is slowing down considerably.