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There are a lot of people trying to sell these things right now
20 pages bumped within the last 4 hours selling but not even 4 full pages or buying trades bumped within the last day.
High supply and Low demand
This and most other festives are a buyers market right now.
Here's my own trade:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6081140
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5806542
I think you have enough evidence to suggest 4-4.66 ref. Definitely agree with this one more than the 3.66-4 ref range.
I think this one is closer, but the 4.66 link is like 2 weeks old and the 4 and 4.33 ref still unsold makes me think twice. I'm leaving this item to other admins.
From the other suggestion http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6199519
I still think it's possible to get 5 ref or 2 keys it's just not happening right and left. I myself had someone willing to buy for 2 keys but was too slow.