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Unusual offers don't determine a hat's price in pure promos.
I don't think they do, but there is only one of them that I can find on the market and it doesn't have any pure promo offers. The closest there is would be a sfrl, which is around 1.5 buds. Unusual offers are also generally reflective of the hat's highest selling price in pure, the only thing is that it would take patience to sell at 2.
http://www.tf2pricecheck.net/Thread-PC-Cauldron-Bubbles-Prancer-s-Pride
People say 1.5 max.
pricecheck isn't always right, I've learned that through trading
I just learnt yesterday when a pricecheck for a stormy 13th hour private eye was horribly wrong at 15 buds. The best offer was 8 buds so I guess you're right.