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Can't post more proof, tf2op is down at the moment. Will post more later.
I bid on a bunch of trades last night trying to get one, so I'm pretty familiar with the price they seem to be going for.
After witnessing a 1 key + 2.33 ref trade early on ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6494683[/url]) I decided to bid 2 keys on many trades.
Out of 30+ trades, 11 sellers have refused my bid of 2 keys so far, but 3 sellers accepted it. I bought it last night for 2 keys ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6497943[/url])
I also saw a few available for 3 or 4 keys, as well as the entire set for an Ebenezer, or a Bill's Hat. I'm not sure about the prices for the other items, but assuming this is the most desired, the other 5 items would have to sell at 1 key each for this to be 3 keys.
Now, the other problem with this item on Outpost is, it's impossible to search for by using the search feature on the site at the moment. I had to be linked to a trade, in order to do a by-item search to find these things.
What I'm saying here is that a majority of prospective buyers are unable to search for this item at the time, and therefore there is a low amount of bidding vs. what could be expected.
I tried to Price Check this item yesterday, and posted the search links here if anyone is interested.
Having said all that, I do believe 2 keys is out of the 80/20-rule range and you'd likely need to pay 3-4 keys for this item to successfully buy it.
[I'll try to get more links if Outpost becomes responsive soon]
When the only other vote on the item says it is worth 20-25 keys because it is a "good hat," you don't need proof to get my upvote.
Fucking Low!
- Hmm's.
- Looks in BP
- Looking, looking.
- Ahh, there it is.
- Checks item history...
- Original item ID? Yup.
- User has never bought or sold the item but is posting about it in backpack.tf comment section? Yup.
Just par for the course nowadays, I suppose.
You was just stupid because the fact that the buds, the bill, the BMOC and are object of other money is caused due to their rarity
This hat is only >1 400 in G. u_u
Oh, wow, I didn't realize that you were the one who posted the other price suggestion as well.
I think you're mistaken about the rarity of this hat: backpack.tf links to stats.tf which is a service that tracks statistics on public backpacks that have been looked up on backpack.tf.
What it really means is that ~1,600 public backpacks have been looked up on this site so far, in one week since the item was available.
This item is not as rare as you may believe, but that's besides the point. Rarity rarely has anything to do with demand for an item.
What you don't understand is that supply isn't the only thing that determines value. There can only be a 1 of 1 item and if nobody wants it, then its not worth anything.
I put up a trade on outpost earlier today for a key and 2 Hat With No Name's and got an add within 15 minutes. This price is more than reasonable.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6504191
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6502996
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6491613
Sounds accurate to me.