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I think is easy craft it, just 3 watches in existence (Dead Ringer, Quack and CnD), 33.3% Probability of craft it. Downvote for now, and too i bought two for 1.00 Refined ea.
Almost everyone on outpost sells for key each. And still gets buyers. The person you bought from was obviously expecting the price to be much lower than a ref since it's so easy to get.
Keep in mind, since it's 1/3 chance you have a better chance of obtaining this spy watch OVER the Sharp Dresser and etc. so it should be less than this.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6549720 2x 2.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6549659 2.00
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6535595 2.33 (battle bob = 2.33)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6543053 2.00
etc.. easy to find for the proposed price, better than the other suggestions right now. it might drop, but for now this is good.