I added the age of the trade because most are fairly recent, but the fact is that people are willing to sell in this range.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6599178[/url] Selling Deep Commitment to Purple for 10 keys [2 days old]

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6618691[/url] Selling Unpainted 10 for keys + 2 ref [2 days old]

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6644321[/url] Selling After Eight for 11 keys [1 hour old]

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6613192[/url] Selling Distinct Lack of Hue for 12 keys [1 day old]

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6574492[/url] Selling Team Spirit for 12 keys + 1 ref [3 days old]

Conclusion: When you take into account the price of the paints; it becomes clear that people are selling willing to sell for less than the current price. There were some somewhat old current offers of 12 keys +/-, but I did not list them because the purpose of this suggestion is to set a lower bound for the hat.

Note: All trades were currently open and unsold when this suggestion was made.