I’m struggling to work out why the last suggestion didn’t include 1.66. It seemed (to my mind at least) to be saying that ‘these sell for 1.66, but 1.55 seems like a good high end price.’ Anyway, here’s why I think that 1.33-1.66 is a fairer price, and more adjusted to market conditions. Two ref seems like it is the price ‘above the high end’, where people sell for 2 ref, but they are very rarely bought unless they drop to 1.66. These links show that 1.66 is an acceptable high end range for this trade, with one offer even stretching to 1.77.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6348252 - Sold for 1.66 – (offer of 1.33, seller ups the price)

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8748902 – Sold for 1.66

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6807129 - Selling at 1.66 – 1 hour

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8750616 – Sold for 1.77

However, it is still possible to buy at 1.33. The reason these are unsold is probably that people don’t check the classifieds, but they are still valid.

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/rogue - Two people selling at 1.33

Coupled with this, I think that this is rising. There are trades selling for 2 ref all over the place – here’s a few examples (check outpost and trading post for more if you want).

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6672678 - Selling for 2 ref – 5 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6589507 - Selling for 2 ref – 1 week

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8749421 – Selling for 1.88

This price makes much more sense than the other one, and demonstrates the fact that people are doing business at 1.66 and even higher.

I would have liked to have more evidence, but these aren’t in great supply or demand and so the amount of trades that can be analysed is limited. Even though the links aren’t ridiculously plentiful, I have looked at all the evidence that I could collect and have come to the conclusion that this is the correct price.

Let me know what you think. If you downvote, tell me why :D