Suggestion: Mann Co. Supply Crate Key at 2.88–3 ref

Price Suggestion

~57.22 ref

370 votes up

363 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was closed Sun, 09 Dec 12 13:43:46 +0000 by Brad Pitt | statsroyale.com.

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Comments

*Edited to provide the links I listed above in this comment.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6740470

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6770717

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6494046

http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2trade/comments/1440mz/h_113_ref_w_keys_at_283_each/

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6740465

Selling at 3 refined

1st link: 4 days old, looks to have sold 16 at 3 refined.

2nd link: 3 days old, claims to have sold 100+ 3 ref.

Buying at 2.77

3rd link: 2 weeks old, only one taker that was at least a week ago. Still has a backpack full of metal

Buying at 2.83

4th link: 5 days old. I added him to ask if they were sold and he was nice enough to tell me he sold very little at that price. He said most of it went for 2.88.

Selling at 2.88

5th link: One of my past trades to sell at 2.88 to show I'm speaking from experience. It's 4 days old. I had 3 people add me in less than a hour before I could take the trade down. Ended up selling more than I would have liked to. I've since sold 6-8 at 3 refined without a problem.

You'll need a lot more evidence to convince me to change the market value of keys.

http://tf2finance.com/keys/ The current average on this is 2.9. That means that either:

A.) Nearly all sales are made at 2.88 with a few being made at 3

B.) The sales made at 2.77 are less than are happening at 3, so the average is higher than 2.88

C.) Keys are hyping up in price far beyond typical inflation levels and are practically begging for the bmoc/festive effect.

Look BEYOND outpost. It's full of highballers.

In my opinion, outpost represents the largest volume of any tf2 trading platform. I agree, it has loads of highballers but it will usually give you a good idea of what the market price is. It's not hype that's driving the price of keys up.. It's the amount of metal being dumped into the market.

It is Hype that is driving key prices up. But artificial inflation is still inflation.

Due to instability of other goods, many traders has turned to key trade.

If you try selling keys at 2.77 at outpost,

- Most likely the buyer approaching you would have a post reselling it at 3.

Since its an almost "cannot lose" deal, getting keys at 2.77

- Key being a currency commodity wouldn't have price crashes

- People are starting to be comfortable paying 3 for them.

Yea, I can get behind this argument. It doesn't matter what causes the inflation, but it has happened either way. I posted 2.88 to 3 because it's a good, and valid range that hopefully they can sit on for a while, much like they did at 2.55 to 2.66. In that range of only 1 scrap, it was usually common to pay 2.66 ref for a 1 key item. While 2.55 was the value of the key, people pay the extra scrap as sort of compensation for the hassle of converting it back to a key. With a range of 2 scraps, it misinforms buyers that sellers should take 2.77 for their key when they can easily get 2.88-3 ref (and I mean really not very difficult).

And the instability has been artificially made. Remember that.

No, not really. The value of keys was simply knocked out of equilibrium during Halloween. This put it's value in arbitration and it proved that the value of a key was greater than 2.55-2.66. People seem happy to buy at 2.88 and happy to sell at 3 right now. Equilibrium is a good thing!

You want to know why they are happy to buy at 2.88? BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT TO PAY 3 REFINED, LIKE IDIOTS ON OUTPOST WANT TO DO.

TF2Finanace takes account of all trades happening globally...not just TF2OP...but every steam trade ever whether they met on TF2OP or TF2TP or trade servers or just happen to be friends. Considering this how can you ignore stats from tf2finance saying TF2OP is largest trading platform?

I read through this page http://tf2finance.com/2012_11/

Not sure I agree with a 100% of his takeaways b/c I was quickly skimming, but none the less there's a lot of good stuff in there.

A few things I noticed on the website:

Key prices (in terms of metal) are discrete within a range of 1 scrap. This means that trades, small or large, generally occur within one discrete interval. The average of 2.89 is within the interval I've suggested. A good way to see the real value of keys is to look at the power traders. They are always searching for the best deals and work hard to get them.

All sold for 3 Refined Each.

December 7th, 2012:

http://i.imgur.com/VXkRJ.png ~ Sold 3 Keys for 9 Refined

http://i.imgur.com/7okTP.png ~ Sold 1 Key for 3 Refined

http://i.imgur.com/rcuqF.png ~ Sold 6 Keys for 18 Refined

http://i.imgur.com/6pueD.png ~ Sold 1 Key for 3 Refined

December 5th, 2012:

http://i.imgur.com/Qc0yT.png ~ Sold 5 Key for 15 Refined

December 4th, 2012:

http://i.imgur.com/naFHB.png ~ Sold 3 Keys for 9 Refined

http://i.imgur.com/DVHyF.png ~ Sold 1 Key for 3 Refined

Price rises due to an increase in demand. Are you doubting that there has been an increase in demand?

Okay. I'm here to disagree with suggested price. Why? On outpost, I currently have a trade selling keys @ 2.94 each. That's the middle of this current suggestion. I've only sold 20 today.

You may think 20 sounds like a lot, but it's not. Not for 10 hours at a bump every 30 minutes. I went through over 100 in the previous 2-3 days at the same price and usually sold a bud's worth in 2 hours tops. Demand has actually started to go down for once.

Trade in question: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6822076

Every bud in the past week is 27 keys I've sold (7 buds): http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/168064

Why do people feel the need to constantly update the most fluid item in tf2? We get it, it might have gone up or down a scrap. That doesn't mean it needs an instant update.

I see where you're coming from but it is what it is. This is a pricing site.. can't hurt to be accurate.

There are currently 382,778 keys in existance. Considering a change of 1-2 scrap each that would mean that for a change of price at 1 scrap a gain of 42,531 refined metal would be involved with all the keys in existance. For 2 scrap, a gain of 85,062 refined metal is involved in the change.

I know it is annoying, and i'm not trying to be rude or offend, but when you're dealing with such a common item, such little price increments make a huge difference.

If more people are having success selling keys for 3 refined then buyers are for 2.77 then I agree this change is better. On a key suggestion 3 days ago I found five buyers for 2.88 in the first two pages on outpost.

Refer here: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/50bdb864ba25368214000021

I've seen a bunch of trades up on outpost and r/tf2trade lately asking for keys at 3 ref each, so I agree with this range. I know that they can go for lower on trade servers, but I don't think it makes sense to let the prices be partially dictated by the people who just don't care much about the changes in the tf2 economy.

Going to downvote again because they don't sell at three, unless some idiot actually falls for OP's highballers.

Took a look at your outpost. It doesn't look you've tried buying or selling keys in 3 weeks.

That's because I follow the trade rules of "Add me if you agree with my price".

2.77 is easy, 2.66 does require a bit of browsing, but it's very possible.Especially on trade servers. Trading doesn't revolve around Outpost.

2.77 is not easy in the least bit. I've had my key trade up for 4 days and I haven't had a single bite.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6520083 - My trade. I am buying for a specific reason so it's different but still. At least 30 of those have been bought for 2.77 each and less in the last week or so.

Mainly from trade servers but the fact remains, they are not that difficult to get for 2.77 if you really want them.

The last time anyone posted on that trade to buy at 2.77 was at least a week ago. There's even a post that's 3 hours old saying that he's got some keys at 2.88 for ya but sry can't do 2.77 because they move like hotcakes at 2.88.

Was merely pointing out facts from my own key purchasing in the last week.

People don't always post before adding.

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8758363 2 craft hats apiece.

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8758328 Sold at 2.77

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8738390 Sold at 2.77

Look beyond outpost. These took 2 minutes to find.

I'll give it to ya for at least providing some evidence to back it up. Though I'd add that the 2nd link doesn't look like it lasted long and the 3rd link is 5 days old. It still doesn't change my opinion that the rare occasion you find someone selling at 2.77... they either don't care about the extra scrap or don't know they could get 2.88 in the same amount of time it took them to get 2.77.

You can literally find all the keys you want for 2.88 in a trade server. And I've bought about 15 keys at 2.77 also on trade servers. Saying keys should be 2.88-3 cause outpost dudes sell them for that is kinda redundant. I see people selling on outpost for 3.33 now. Should keys be 3.33? Because a random russian bought some for 3.33? I sold 2 keys for 3.33 like 3 weeks ago. maybe i shold've thrown a vote.

Thread where i buy for 2.77 > http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6442706#/25401771

Bought about 30 keys from that thread the last 2 weeks. the last 3 days about 8~. And I don't bump my threads regularly.

I'm going to upvote this, because one: I have been able to sell 10 keys at 3 refined each. And Two: Because I know you're going to get a crap ton of downvotes no matter how good your logic is.

haha, this is true. I saw the last one had -57 points. I'm trying to bring reason and logic and they just seem angry.

It seems people will always downvote if raising the price of keys no matter how much proof

Keys price should NOT be rising anyways.

But they are.

YOU DON'T SAY? If they weren't rising, then there would have been no point in me saying that.

This has gotten so ridiculous. Keys don't need to be changed by 1 scrap every other day people.

I wouldn't mind seeing key suggestions locked by an admin until it is obvious that it needs to be updated again.

TL;DR I doesn't need to be updated again. Current range is more than fine. 2.77 is still possible.

I'll bite on this one. The current range is not fine. 2.77 might be possible but is a little "sharky" if you will. Please understand that this price change is to eliminate that. For clarity, I've copy pasta'd a recent comment (at the bottom of this page) and my reply to him.

START

Shark-mann said:

Today, I bought 6 keys at 2.77 ref each (My trade has been up for 3 days): http://imgur.com/X0QDm.jpg *The person I traded with was willing to sell even more for 2.77 ref each, but I was out of metal.

I bought another key at 2.77 ref 2 days ago: http://imgur.com/iuEui.jpg

Also today, I was able to instantly sell 9 keys that I had for 3 ref each: http://imgur.com/TJ05k.jpg

So, in my opinion, the current range is fine, but I am staying neutral on this vote though.

My response:

Fair enough, but I'm not sure I understand why anyone would buy at 2.77. I just searched outpost for people wanting keys for their metal and found 2 people out of the first 5 listings that were offering 2.88 refined per key.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6317680 3 weeks old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6789839 3 days old

If you'll hear me out, I'd like to try and gain your vote.

Since it took you 3 days to buy keys at 2.77 and no time at all to sell at 3... would you consider the buyer at 2.77 misinformed, or against the idea of his keys being worth more? For his sake, I would hope that he's just misinformed and not the latter. If I was a betting man, I would say it's because of the prices on backpack.tf. I think it's to the point now where backpack has become the "go to" if you will. It's an extremely useful resource for those who don't trade as much as others. In my opinion, a range of 2.77-3 is misleading and doesn't help this situation. Currency such as metal has been shown by tf2finance.com to be traded over one discrete interval, much like it was over 2.55 to 2.66. If it's outside of that interval, then someone in the trade is losing.

In any case, thanks for the input.

END

As for the change of 1 scrap not being relevant? User Anne Frank put it best.

START

"There are currently 382,778 keys in existance. Considering a change of 1-2 scrap each that would mean that for a change of price at 1 scrap a gain of 42,531 refined metal would be involved with all the keys in existance. For 2 scrap, a gain of 85,062 refined metal is involved in the change.

I know it is annoying, and i'm not trying to be rude or offend, but when you're dealing with such a common item, such little price increments make a huge difference."

END

As for price suggestions being locked by an admin.That would not be good for anyone.

You should go onto a trade server once in a while. I buy keys at 2.77 very very easily in servers.

You have no proof of that....

Go on a trade server then. You have no proof against it.

He is making the claim, he has the burden of proof.

For example in a criminal case, the prosecution has to prove the defendant guilty, the defendant does not have to prove innocence,

Downvote. I have said time and time again why key prices should not be inflated, but of course the key hoarders, those people who don't give two shits about this game, will not listen to logic.

http://tf2finance.com/keys/ closer to the current price. But besides that, I'm not sure because I have no luck buying at 2.83 ref.

Read what I say in this Link: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/50ad73ebba25363232000060

Isn't it scary that I predicted this would happen?

Alright man... I'm trying here but I feel like I'm playing cards with my brother's kids. No doubt inflation is bad, but it's econ 101. The excessive growth of money supply is the reason it happens. This is exactly what is happening with the tf2 economy. People trying to make a profit create many accounts and idle them for metal... Since there is really no way to regulate it, it creates a mix between actually working for your money and owning the federal reserve. Devaluation of the metal should drag the prices of items up now. Everyone is fighting it tooth and nail because their buying confidence has fallen. Yes, it's very inconvenient, but in a free market.. nothing is set in stone.

There is no devaluation of metal, that is the point. The only thing that has changed is that traders have become more greedy. Greed also has an effect on the economy, and you need not look any further than the real estate bubble of 2007-2008 to understand. The current problem is that these idiots on outpost are treating these keys as limited edition promos, and the lamebrained excuse of HERP FERP KEYS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE LIMITED. All these excuses to pass off the price of keys to the rest of community are just that - excuses. The only time these idle accounts were brought up was because of the halloween event, even though keys are getting to the quantity they were before halloween. The problem that apparently you do not see is that base64's site, for better or for worse, has been used as a sort of holy scripture to key traders, and that these key price hikes are supported by the site that he created to MONITOR the price of keys, not determine the value.

Bottom line is that I cannot support the price hike more keys are pumped in to the economy than there are being consumed. I do not care about the refined at all. The fact that keys can still be bought, and the keys appearing faster than they disappear, dissuade me from approving any price hike,

>There is no devaluation of metal, that is the point.

zzzz

This is nonsense. There is obvious metal devaluation. You just need to take a look at cash market. Keys don't go up in price. They are stable at around $1.25(despiting halloween rise). It is refined metal which is dropping like crazy. Few months ago it was $0.50-$0.55. Now it's hard sell at 45 cents.

Why you ask? More and more people makes hundreds of idle accounts trying to make buck of them. And yeah, metal will keep devaluating.

And the inevitable crash of the key market will only be rushed that much further...

http://tf2finance.com/keys/ Keys have taken another move down to 2.89, the middle value is 2.88.

"You have my downvote"

"And you have my disapproval"

"And MY horrible lotr reference"

Also: If you look at the trends after events, keys peaked sometime AFTER the event had ended, and then taken a drop.

Up vote

As much as I hate keys going up in price, and would love for them to go back to 2.55. Keys have a high demand, and proof is shown.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6842143

upvote, 10 keys sold in 15 minutes at 3 ref each

In the past 3 days, I've sold all the keys I had for 3 refined each. I was able to purchase a couple as well for 2.77 refined but it was rare.

Also love how the past 2 keys votes accepted have had a negative score haha. Looks like some people can't accept that key prices are on the rise unfortunately for the time being.

i bought over 75 keys in the last month for 2.50-2.55 ref each. only 6 were bought for 2.66.. you just trying to make you're real money work in your favor

"Last month" is a really long time ago, don't you think so? :)

i meant this week.

All sold for 3 Refined Each.

December 7th, 2012:

[url]http://i.imgur.com/VXkRJ.png[/url] ~ Sold 3 Keys for 9 Refined

[url]http://i.imgur.com/7okTP.png[/url] ~ Sold 1 Key for 3 Refined

[url]http://i.imgur.com/rcuqF.png[/url] ~ Sold 6 Keys for 18 Refined

[url]http://i.imgur.com/6pueD.png[/url] ~ Sold 1 Key for 3 Refined

December 5th, 2012:

[url]http://i.imgur.com/Qc0yT.png[/url] ~ Sold 5 Key for 15 Refined

December 4th, 2012:

[url]http://i.imgur.com/naFHB.png[/url] ~ Sold 3 Keys for 9 Refined

[url]http://i.imgur.com/DVHyF.png[/url] ~ Sold 1 Key for 3 Refined

Like this to bump it up!

The price before was already at 3refined :P

Don't ask for likes. If your comment deserves a like it will be liked. Don't make this into youtube.

Why everyone is so desperate to change key prices all of the time?

Today, I bought 6 keys at 2.77 ref each (My trade has been up for 3 days): [url]http://imgur.com/X0QDm.jpg[/url] *The person I traded with was willing to sell even more for 2.77 ref each, but I was out of metal.

I bought another key at 2.77 ref 2 days ago: [url]http://imgur.com/iuEui.jpg[/url]

Also today, I was able to instantly sell 9 keys that I had for 3 ref each: [url]http://imgur.com/TJ05k.jpg[/url]

So, in my opinion, the current range is fine, but I am staying neutral on this vote though.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6317680 3 weeks old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6789839 3 days old

If you'll hear me out, I'd like to try and gain your vote.

In any case, thanks for the input.

dude i have gotten so many for 2.66, obv your not going to on outpost, because outpost is full of people trying to make tons of profit. the price right now is already to high just go on a trade server and try to find someone selling for 3 ref LOL. will never happen

First: All you have is anecdotal evidence.

Second: There are even buying threads on outpost offering to pay 3 ref now.

Third: This site reflects what the majority of the item is bought and sold for.

Fourth: It might happen; I don't agree with it, but it might happen.

ok but why should the 2.77 be taking out of the price?.. there EXTREMLY easy to get for that. even on outpost there easy to get

That I cannot answer, but every trade selling for 2.77 ref sells out in minutes. I can assure you of that.

If it's so easy to get keys for 2.77 refined then why could I find people buying for 2.88 (and they don't exactly get fast keys)?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6662122

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6174745

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6852359

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6835140

Definite upvote. This link is pure proof.

http://imgur.com/9sgJV&E2uHr

Look at the time it took to get an instant offer - 21 seconds!!!!!!! I actually had 2 offers within 20 seconds.

Well, putting in 100x links where ppl are offering for 2.66 or 3.00 is a point, but I traded for 30x keys this week (getting rid of my metal).

Today was the last deal. Got 10x keys für 30x ref in some minutes.

Well, for me it would be nice if a key has more value, but it does not have over 3.00.

An average of 2.88 to 3.00 is fine atm. With time and some dealing you can get 2.88. Fast trade is no problem at 3.00.

Did not get any real offer for 2.66/2.77 -- offers yes, but the backpack / stock was empty from this offers. (same persons often buying for 2.44 to 2.66 and they dont get any for this price!)

I dont like keys getting more expensive, but YES --- they have to at this point ---

Well, I'm not going to vote for this because you still can get keys for 2.77. Unfortunately, it will probably be accepted anyways.

if you're going to make those arguments, it should be 2.83 to 3, not 2.88 to 3

Two days ago you couldn't even find a single seller at 2.88 who wasn't outsold within seconds. So I still have ~40 metal eating a whole page in my backpack...I checked EVERY seller at tf2outpost, tf2tp and bazar.tf to find anyone who actually sells at 2.88. Absolutely every 2.88 trader was empty/outsold/down/unreachable.

At least for the big trade hubs its "buy at 3 or get lost".

Upvote because :

Keys can be sold pretty easily for 3 ref.

I enjoy seeing people with the "I'm never gonna buy a key for 3 ref" attitude get butthurt.

Sold 13 keys, 2.88 each in like 5 minutes. Totally voting up!

"Greate"! Now they all sell for 3 refined metalls...

Downvoting.

Downvote.

The current one which is 2.77 - 3 ref is fine for now.

I was able to buy a key for 2.77 on trade server last night.

This site should really limit the key suggestion to be open like every 2 weeks instead of every fudgin day!

Definately upvote, but you chose wrong links to proove it. There are way too many people buying at 2.88 ref to keep low range at 2.77.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6851476

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6866636

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6867299

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6677717

(I could post at least dozen of examples)

Also keys put at 2.88 are sold immediately.

I agree with Ninpajamies, I can't see any reason why Keys should be 3 Ref right now, just destroys the whole market. NOBODY should buy keys for 3 Ref, it's a rip-off. 2.66 is still expensive, but ok for now. Everything else is too expensive.

2.66 to 2.77 Never seen one at 2.88.

Im neutural for now, even though ive sold 1 key for 3 ref and 4 for 2.88. 2.77 offers are instantly jumped on but are very few from what i have seen.

i had 60 keys, i sold 50 of them in 2 hours at 3 ref. 7 people added me.

Now im trying to sell for 3.11

You can still buy and sell keys for 2.77 on trade servers pretty easily. Downvoted.

In two days I have been able to buy 12 keys at 2.77 ref. I think shutting that part of the price out is unnecessary.

Looking through the comments, I'm seeing alot of idiots saying "Looking how easily I sold my key for 3 Ref" or "Finance says 2.89 is the average" and justifying their upvotes with that. Two things wrong with this.

1) 3 Ref is ALREADY part of the CURRENT range. How is selling within the current range proof the range should change?

2) Yes, 2.89 is the average of sales. But, since so many sales DO happen at 3 Ref, trades at 2.88 wouldn't be enough to keep the average at ~2.90. Trades at 2.77 MUST be occuring to keep the average so close to 2.88.

Easily a Downvote.

wow now is rising price of the week ! XD maybe i upvote this one :D

I agree with shortening the range, but I had people on a trade server yesterday selling for 2.66 . Sad thing is those people went and sold for 3.11 .

Although, I buy for 2.77 pretty easily. Just ask around.

This is just ridiculous. Keys used to be 2.55, then they jumped up to 3 ref overnight. The last thing we need is a price raise.

It's VERY clear that you not only are new to trading, but also have little understanding of how this spreadsheet works. Yes, keys used to be 2.55. They even used to be 2.33 before that, but the market changes. The halloween unusual re-release caused a huge spike in the demand for keys, without spiking the supply. I assume you know how supply and demand works, yes? So, the price rose massively, yeah, almost overnight, because that's what happens when you have tons of uncraters who suddenly decide they want a fancy new unusual. The price still hasn't recovered from the halloween spike, and very possibly won't anytime soon.

Second, this spreadsheet is not run based on what we as the voters want, it's based on what people are successfully buying and selling for.

So in a totally unrelated matter in order to lighten the mood in here I'd like to show everyone this: [url]http://backpack.tf/vote/647/5/30[/url]

what the......for a moment I thought somebody actually uncrated this beaut

I wish it could exist, but nevertheless you can always make a price suggestion for it. :3

Warning: It would be dumb to do that just in case anyone get any ideas.

I'll do what I want!

I liked the price at 2.66.2.77 was alright but 2.88-3.11?That's just outrageous,if you go to Hexide Shop then you can buy a key for 1.50 and 3 ref for 1.55 so it basically shows how a key should equal less than 3 ref.Honestly since the keys are so unstable people should just stick to metal.

Not good enough proofs

total upvote

I put a key up for 2.88, got 6 adds within 5 minutes.

A day later someone will post the new price 2.77-3 instead of the previous 2.88-3. With proof that he can buy a key for 2.77.

Dude, obviously this is wrong. People on outpost are now selling for 3-3.33 Ref per key. so obviously this is lowering the price too low. 3.33 seems to be a good price.... god I hate that site...

People on the outpost don't seem to understand the concept of supply and demand. Nor do they understand how to compete with each other. So I hope you were just being sarcastic.

Haha yea man :P completely being sarcastic :)

i sold 100 keys at 3 ref each within 6 hours, around 10 people added me to buy

At this time, 2.88-3 ref is still too early. With an average still around 2.90, this would not reflect the current market. Pretty crazy 50/50 split vote with 732 voters! Considering many sold for 3 ref, the current range is still good showing those willing to pay b/o of 3 ref, but many sell for less still.