Just wondering, why 4.5 as lower mark?

There isn't indication about 4.5 in your proofs, only one offer (not traded)

From your proofs and their replys:

- No Trades are done.

- Highest Buyer stated: less then 5 keys (so end up with multiple offers 5 keys)

- Only 1 seller offering lower then 5 keys (4key +1ref) has inventory private, and since trade didn't occur, causes doubts

Found 2 links:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6568013, sold for 5 keys, 1 week ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6807552, wants to buy at 4 keys 2 days ago, no bites

Would have upvote IF it happens to be pure 5keys.

- Since there are multiple offers of 5 keys

==> shows there are people willing to sell at 5 key

- There isn't enough evidence to justify 4.5 at lower end

==> The 4key 1ref offer can either be Quicksell OR Friends helping out