Suggestion: Strange Festive Sniper Rifle at 18–20 keys

Price Suggestion

~36.5 keys

41 votes up

3 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was accepted Tue, 11 Dec 12 06:44:17 +0000 by [GIRL] Mr. Bucket.

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Comments

This has significantly altered my outlook on life. I was looking through OP, trying to see if the rise in price that so many people are talking about has actually happened. What I found will surprise you.

Before we start, a reminder not to bring preconceptions into your consideration of the evidence, and not to vote this down because you own one. Don't be like this guy.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6936381

Moving on, what I discovered was that demand for these is through the proverbial floor. Sellers range from a bud downwards, but they're all unsold. I decided to ignore the bud sellers, as it's blatantly obvious that that isn't the price. In descending order:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6887491 - Unsold for 26 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6934674 - Unsold for 25 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6932229 - Unsold for 24 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6624908 - Unsold for 24 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6526800 - Unsold for 24 keys, offer of 20 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6852417 - Unsold for 24 keys - 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5212391 - Unsold for 24 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6814270 - Unsold for 23 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6925797 - Selling for 23 keys with headshots (usually adds 2 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6900833 - Unsold for 22 keys - 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6793186 - Unsold for 22 keys - 6 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6932229 - Unsold for 21 keys

To be honest, I don't think you can sell at 21 keys any more. I don't know what's changed, but they're not selling, and people who actually want to sell have to lower their prices. Now to those that are sold/selling within my range.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6796240 - Offer of 20 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6546956 - C/O of 20 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6474576 - Bought several for 20 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6889513 - Selling for 19 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6917936 - Selling for 2 bills (one black or white) ~= 19 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6169616 - Sold for 18 keys, another offer to sell almost straight away - 2 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3897530 - Offer to sell for 18 (don't know if accepted) - 1 day ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6832145 - C/O to sell for 18 keys

These are being bought in the 18 - 20 key range, and being sold (in some cases) for 19 on sellers' trades. There's no way the price can remain the way it is.

This analysis was produced by looking at every trade for keys that had a result/no result listed on outpost. I suppose the most telling piece of information is this. Why would you sell at 18 or 19 keys when you could easily get 21 - 22? The answer is this: you can't.

The only trade I could find outside of this price range was an obvious quickbuy, and it doesn't make sense to include it in price debate. But, for the sake of academic honesty, I'll give you the link: make of it what you will.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6936903 - Sold for 23 keys (obvious quickbuyer)

And for once guys, don't be mystery down voters. On almost all my suggestions there are ~5 people who down vote without posting a comment. If you have a valid reason why this shouldn't go through, tell me! Others can follow your lead - if you're right.

Let me know what you think :D

U WRONG!!1! IT WURTH 4 EARBILLZ. IM SELLING MEIN FOR 9 BUDS. DATS THE PRICE!111

..just kidding. You put a lot of work into this suggestion and it shows. Easy upvote from me; though, the little, greedy part of me wants it to go up so mine goes up haha.

Nope :P Until I see some more SOLD for your price, you got a downvote from me. Protip: try to supply more sold ones than unsold links. Sorry mate.

What a surprise, you have one.

Notice how the unsold links are the ones at the current price, and the sold ones are within my range.

You also had a suggestion which involved the words, "Christmas is coming..."

Festive prices dropping like scouts agianst natascha. Upvoted.

I got 6 or 7 of these in the WH spazz out and have gotten rid of 5 of them so far in 2 days, mostly as part of a larger swap for an unusual. I've had no problem at all getting people to value them at 21 keys, but whatever, they are certainly bound to drop as Christmas nears and people try to dump them before the inevitable early January crash. Think this is a week or so too early but I'll stay neutral on it.

Upvote. Festives and strange festives are dropping hard. No one wants to have them come Christmas in case of a release of them again. It's a real possibility and anyone to think otherwise is legitimately in denial about it. Sold mine and happy about it.

This price is certainly correct. Upvoted.

However, festives aren't dropping. In reality keys went up to 3 refined metal in price so technically the festives are still worth the same as before, but keys are scarce and worth more so a lot of items such as strange kritzkrieg, festives, expensive hats, etc. went down in "key prices".

We cannot be sure if they are going to crash until the update. If they are re-released, festives will plunge. If they don't, festives will go down a bit after December, but gradually rise again in price if the demand is still there. I can't tell the future so I may be right or wrong. Either way, "key prices" for festive sniper rifle is going down.