http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4789611 - Couple owners back, offer of a S. Kritz + 2 buds (looks like S. Kritz was priced around 1.5 here at that point)

Looks like ending trade was moon Bloke's + steaming Veil for scorching Snaggle + a few keys

Trade after this was moon Bloke's + steaming Veil + strange Machina, Huntsman, and Festive Sniper Rifle for a HOUWAR

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6767612 - Former owner was willing to pay 3.5 for another

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5463123 - Claims of an offer of a Holiday Headcase

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5463123 - We can see what was last traded at the bottom of this page. Moon Bloke's + Planets Pride + a handful of stranges and paints for a Cauldron Bubbles Lucky Shot

So the trade history of this thing is surprisingly visible, but annoyingly never a simple trade. Very clear that a bump of at least this much is needed, if not a little higher.