Suggestion: Strange Festive Sandvich at 10–12 keys

Price Suggestion

~19.3 keys

585 votes up

217 votes down

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Comments

Haha, no. But good luck anyway.

Try look at the sellers too. This is slightly biased.

It's basically just a giant advertisment of buy orders that are lowballing. It's ridiculous and these are worth bout $50 in real money to unbox so anything under 20 Keys is probably not going to happen unless the person you're trading with is not able to comprehend mathematics or the costs to unbox these.

What? 1 naughty crate key is $50? Umm, if you're talking about chances of getting it, that's not how it works. You think botkillers cost as much as the Mann up tickets cost in the store?

Your logic is flawed. Stranges only drop in 5% of naughty crates. There's 9 Stranges. The probability of unboxing this sandvich is 1:180 crates.

Huh? When did I say that it wasn't? What are you arguing on?

Also, looking at these buyers trades, just know that the sellers are the ones offering. Most of these buyers don't have a buyouts. So where did the low balling part come from?

I'm arguing that prices under 20 keys are lowballs and not worth your time and money to unbox the item. End of.

Edit: Change topic, my mistake.

No. You think everyone that has ever unboxed a S.F. Sandvich used 20 keys to get it? You think demand will always stay this high? Sellers want to sell their sandviches to the buyers for these prices they want, let them. They probably got it on their first few unboxes, unless its some kind of mass unboxer, who, in the end, will want to sell it that low too. There seems to be quite a number of them at the moment, and if demand doesn't reach that high, how can it be 20 keys?

you do realize there's no time frame to get those right? The botkillers?

Sorry bout that, changed argument.

owch! he told ya man.

No BK weapons should be worth around 5-6 Keys because you don't always profit from unboxing, you get to own the item before you sell it and profit, so 5-6 Keys is fair for bot killers. 1:9 chance is a lot better than 1:180, and the naughty crates are going to stop dropping in a short while, and then you'll never get the chance to get these again.

You forgot about supply and demand.

But that's the way it is S&D, no one really cares for botkillers, they are low in price do to the fact that they are easily obtainable. It's not that fact that you think botkillers should be worth more it's the fact that they are worth what the community thinks they are worth. They are just too easy to obtain. S&D man S&D

That thing you said " In a month they sell no less than 20 keys."

They would be a lot less. Only 4 of the 10 2011 festives are more then 20 keys.

And those are very rare compared to how many of these 2012 festives will be around.

On all of these new festive suggestion if theyre low in your mind you like to disagree based on how these are deserving of a high price from your own speculation

You have to look at the supply and the demand of the item. Even though it's rare to unbox a strange festive sandvich, it's just as rare to unbox a strange festive whatever.

Now, there may be a bit more demand for the Sandvich, because it's unique in that it doesn't come in a regular strange variant.

However, every time a strange festive sandvich is unboxed, 20+ keys do not magically appear to buy it.

There is a certain number of buyers for the item, and a certain number of sellers. It's like a race, and we're going to see who's running faster in the next few days.

Sellers compete over prices all the time, I understand that. I don't think you should be reporting on quick sales. Value on these things should be estimated on a quartly basis, not daily. Today they sell as low as 12 keys. In a month they sell no less than 20 keys. So I think the current range is low but fair.

if u check stats.tf u'll see that strange drop chance around 12-15 %. Ur maths is wrong

"Sellers compete over prices all the time, I understand that. I don't think you should be reporting on quick sales. Value on these things should be estimated on a quartly basis, not daily. Today they sell as low as 12 keys. In a month they sell no less than 20 keys. So I think the current range is low but fair."

20 keys, no not really. I own one of these things and do you think I want them to be low in price. no i don't. The matter of the fact is is hat if there is a SF sandvich now there is bound to be one in the near future and if anything they will drop because there is still more than a week for these to be unboxed.

I think there is a weird bug on backpack.tf because I couldn't respond to his comment either; I'm guessing you had the same issue? I'll post it on the forums if you can confirm.

Confirmed, there must be a limit or something.

yhea i cant comment at times.

confirmed, when i wanna post more links in a comment, and it takes a while, the whole post dissapears when saving. So backup it, if it was a longer research.

I don't really look at this on a case to case basis, I prefer to look at the big picture. Sure you own one, I own one, anyone privileged enough to spend money on pixels owns one. I'm trying to help the n00bs who unbox this in 1-2 tries from giving these away to the sharks who buy them up cheap instead of actually unboxing the crates themselves. Anyone who wants to own one of these isn't selling them, but if they were I assure you they wouldn't let them go for only 12 keys.

You're not helping the n00bs because n00bs couldn't afford this. unless they bought keys for the first time. I assure you that people have already sold theirs for 10 keys and people are asking for 10 keys for them.

I've already helped plenty of n00bs selling them for 12 keys actually. I added a few of them and told them to be more patient. One of them waited a bit and sold their for a Purple Fetti Big Chief. When I came online today they thanked me so much, I felt flattered. But I really just wanted to warn people not to get sharked.

listen this is now what people are buying and selling and offering them for. 10 keys-12 keys. sure some people are a little over that but most are at 10-12.

You don't have sufficient evidence. All you've posted is a bunch of random buy orders. These are irrelevant.

I would like to comment. Noobs can afford these... They have funds just as anybody else. The problem is they are uninformed and impatient at trading. I have many younger friends and they trade noobish all the time. I give them advice for trading, they do the opposite by buying high and selling low because of impatience. If they are selling these sandwiches for 10 keys, they are impatient and mearly just quick selling the items. Until the prices stabilize and the stats are available, there is no chance of even remotely having a clear picture. One thing though- 10-12 keys is cheap. This item and the SF Huntsman are going to the stars of the 2012 naughty crates and will have the highest prices of the lot.

Yes but go on outpost everyone is buying and selling them for 10 keys, sure it may be a one of a kind strange but you have to go by what they are selling and buying for and most people say its 10 keys.

Cheap, expensive, it's all relative. Where do you get your arbitrary 20 key price from? Where does he get his 10 key arbitrary price from?

You're both looking at the same market, but deciding to see different things, it seems.

If I have some time later, I'll have a closer look, but for now I'm inclined to believe the OP who posted some examples of buyers being able to buy the item for 10-12 keys.

Buy orders are not proper evidence. You need to show offers accepted for 10 keys by the sellers. Buyers always lowball, they are in it for profit. You can't use what they pay to put a value on this item. People quick sell their houses in the real estate market too, do you think this has an impact on the property value? No, it doesn't.

These are sellers offering their items in a buyer's trade, though. They have already accepted it by offering to sell it!

And using the word 'lowball' means you've already decided on what the price is in your mind. I think you're biased, bought the item for way more than the current suggested price, and have buyers remorse, I'm sorry to say.

You supporting the new price range, meaning that you, also, decided on what the price is in your mind. Secondly, if everyone that owns the item wants to raise the price and everyone that doesn't own one wants to lower the price, there would never be an accurate price range. Your logic is flawed.

I took a look at the market and picked out some trades I found at a reasonable price, without using terms like 'lowball' to describe them.

It looks like they have sold, so the current price is probably accurate enough. I'm sure you could buy this item for 10-12 keys though, so I don't really know what to recommend. Maybe Chief Robin Runs Away's suggestion is better, a 10-14 key range on this thing for now...

Lowballing is the process of buying lower than you think its worth and selling it high. The buyers are lowballing, that's why they setup a buy order instead of wasting their time offering and being declined on 100's of other trades.

Highballing is the process of selling higher than you think its worth after buying it low. The sellers are highballing, that's why they setup a sell order instead of wasting their time offering and being declined on 100's of other trades.

No they are lowballing. You are being ignorant to basic market dynamics. Take a few courses in economics and report back your findings.

How are they low balling? None of them have prices set do they? They're just looking for the lowest prices right? So the sellers are the ones offering. Nobody's low balling.

Here's a list of other people who are "ignorant of basic market dynamics" a.k.a. actually trying to sell something:

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7296911[/url] - 12 keys, unsold after 11 hours

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7318595[/url] - 14 keys, unsold

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7267222[/url] - 14 keys, unsold

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7319449[/url] - 13 keys, two unsold

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7270023[/url] - 12 keys, sold

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7257087[/url] - 10 keys, some interest, trade still up?

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7288786[/url] - 12 keys, unsold, no interest after 15 hours

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7294967[/url] - 12 keys, unsold after 12 hours

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7289631[/url] - 12 keys, unsold after 15 hours

I have ignored all trades over 16 keys as they are a) all unsold and b) totally outside the normal buyer's bids.

There are over 400 seller's trades for a strange festive sandvich, the oldest being 23 hours. There are a little over 200 that are looking for keys at the moment.

There are over 400 buyer's trades for a strange festive sandvich, the oldest being 2 hours. Again, a little over 200 that are spending keys. I do not have time to go through these like the OP has.

All of the trades you listed as unsold are sold today. You're full of it.

I have to say this is true looking at your links and from what have been seeing.

This suggestion is worth reading just to watch the back-and-forth between skareo and Hugh Jazz! Now where's my popcorn...

i'm too lazy to read them XD read like 4 of them then just skipped until i saw other ppls comments.

little proof

I sold mine + s.f. frontier justice for a blizzardy storm Private Eye. Should be a bit higher in price

i traded mine +1key for 1 strange festive huntsman,

Even the current range is too low. Downvote.

Why is current range low? Why cause you have on your bp.

I think current range is higher then what they sell for. And this range seems to be better then current range. There's sellers selling for less. The ones i've seen asking for more are going no where.

The old festives prices shouldnt be the bar for the current festives value.

Down vote. Those are quick sellers. Still, there are many people sold higher than that. But I don't really care about it, because the price will go up anyway when the Christmas ends.

As much as we all know the price will go up there is no point in someone that uses pricing guides as gospel to see that they are going for 12 keys and think this is all they can get.

Believe it or not, prices set on these sites dictate prices moreso than supply and demand... sheeple...

Easy down vote, looks like someone wants to get one for cheap.

How did you know i want t get one for cheap, i guess i need 2 sf sandviches now! Awe man you got me, oh well better luck next time right?

Come on let's be honest here, I have yet to see anyone sell this item for the price range you proposed, NOT one. Plus, I don't see these being dropped very often too, which also increase's the value just in itself. You can try to be sarcastic/comical all you want, but the truth is in the putting, or should I say SANDVICH!

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7320427

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7329607

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7257087

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7305154

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7355724

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7343831

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7281960

I see offers of people higher than the suggested price, but I also see buyouts lower than the current price.

I'd say price is 10-14.

I'd say I like banana sundaes with sprinkles.

(Sorry, that's what I'm eating as I was reading through these riveting comments.)

How's your holiday vacation?

Its good, thank you! I went to Disneyland yesterday! :D

Bought one for 25 refined. Sellers are getting antsy, what with Christmas being on the doorstep and the avalanche of new SFs about to be unboxed. Upvoted for sure.

Where is the real deal at this price 10-12 ?

This proof offers little evidence to me, most of the ones you have listed have not been sold at the asking price, the ones that were are outside of you range and fall within the current one.

i sold mine for 20 keys yesterday...

I've seen these going for 8 keys now, people uncrated like crazy expecting to sell them for buds, it doesn't work like that, festive from last year are pricy because they're rare, the market is getting flooded with the new ones now, the problem is that there is still a bunch of idiots thinking they'll sell them for buds, (And we'll surely keep seeing those trades in autpost even when these festives reach the price they should reach before the event is over) but the real price is a lot LOT lower

Upvoting this, should be accepted already so a new price can be suggested

http://stats.tf/cat/weapons

And yes, still 9 left to open those crates. Yet Festive wrench, one of the lowest has 16.000 while any of these year is yet gone through 5.000

S. Festive Sandvish has only 560 available. So for now, what you are telling about this year is fake!

Stats is some days behind.~

Yea, it took over a week to update that there were even naughty/nice crates, right now it isn't very reliable

Its true, Is true, still you have to admit that they aren't 10.000 units behind

you'd be surprised

10 keys seems too low today. Maybe the market will move lower in the future, who knows. But right now, 12 keys seems to be the average. 12-16 might be high, but this price is no better.

Letters To The Editor

SIR

Never have so many pillocks congregated in such a tiny house. Not a single bloody reference until half way down the page. I wish you hundreds of fat children.

The market will eventually select this price, but 4 days in? I'm struggling to find a single trade which has been executed in this proposed range. I should not struggle to find a value in a range if the range is correct. Litmus. That is all.

HUMBUG

I sold my SF sandvich for 10 keys.

TF2 Christmas crashes are the best Christmas presents around.

These things drop pretty rare. The price on these will rise soon if there are not too many. I haven't seen as many S.F Sandwiches as S.F. Huntsmans and Grenade Launchers so far. The current price might be around 11 keys but it's going to rise a lot soon.

Only 633 Strange Sandviches have been accounted for on stats.tf. Doesn't surprise me, hardly anyone was unboxing them this year (poor people lol)

not even yesterday there were supposedly hundred less, Stats.tf takes a while to update with an accurate amount, I uncrated an SF ubersaw and saw five pages of them on offer on TF2outpost before Stats.tf even registered their existence. There are probably a couple of hundred more than are listed on that website and even then there's still a week to go for people to uncrate, we aren't exactly going to run dry anytime soon. Also now there are 675 listed on the site, 50 sandviches in two hours, hardly anyone unboxing eh?

Maybe just the trade servers I've been in. Not a lot of unboxing in my opinion.

Well i just bought one for a Team Spirit Bills, about 3 people added me prior to that asking for 11-13 Keys worth of stuff. This is quicksell price.

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7379490 [/url]

Buyer's have offered Strange Sapper's quite a bit, but sellers have declined, or put it as a C/O rather than straight out taking it. The first of the following links also shows a lower B/O than currently suggested, but are struggling to sell. [url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7390601[/url] [url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7360079 [/url]

A trader selling for Gaben Freeman's suggested price here : [url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7412449 [/url]

Overall from me, an upvote.

Just talked to two people, one had just sold their SF sandvich for 10 keys and the other was buying for 10 keys, I must say that 10 keys will start to become the high price soon

i got offered one 10 keys, give or take, twice then i got offered one for 6 keys but the guy sold it for 8 when i didn't respond, I sold mine for a bud early on and they just plummeted extremely fast after that

I sold mine for a white bills, didnt think that was asking too much.

I think this is a fair price.

I just sold mine for 18 naughty Keys, my friend sold his for 15 naughty Keys, the price is not dropping, it's rising.

Who did you and your friend sell it to? Everyone else is only selling it for 9-10 keys

I agree, they are around 10 keys and I just sold one.I tryed asking more but it was too hard. I found a guy willing to buy mine for his "cancer" unusual.

lol at this $50 / 20 key bullshit, or this 5% crap. Talks about economics, doesn't know anything about probability.

Looking at last years Festives, the percentage of Stranges to the total amount of each Festive weapon was 15%, with the exception of the Scattergun, Medigun and Wrench, which were around 8% instead.

Assuming the weapons are evenly distributed, with a 1% chance of an unusual, that gives each weapon a 1 in 9 chance of getting found, or around 11%.

Of that 11%, lets assume that 10% of that 11% is Strange. So 1.1% of all Festives in the crate will be a Strange Festive X, where X is any weapon as they all have the same chance.There are 9 weapons, so the chance of getting a Strange Festive is 9 x 1.1% = 9.9% -> 10%

So if you'd require 10 keys to guarantee one Strange Festive, if the chance was 10% (a close average between 8 and 15, and being a round number too), not this 20 key bs, and therefore you'd have to sell it for 10 keys to at least break even with it (assuming everything else is worthless, which it isn't - the unique festives can rake in a few keys too)

As for the buyers lowballing, could it not be the other way around that the sellers are highballing? And if the definition of lowballing includes the phrase "buying low with intent to sell it on later for a higher price", then people who're buying it to collect one of each SF at their own price aren't lowballing, according to your definition of it, as they don't intend to sell it.

People putting trades up buying them for 10 keys are relevant, it shows the lower bounds of what people will take for their item, being desperate enough to sell it at the buyer's price. The upper end reflects what sellers generally ask for (and presumably sell it at).

If people are able to buy it at 10 keys, that should be the bare minimum it currently goes for, and if it can be sold for 12, then that should be the upper bound. They don't get sold for 16 keys according to xen's posts, so the previous price of 12-16 is currently incorrect

20 keys my arse.