Suggestion: Salvaged Mann Co. Supply Crate #40 at 7–8 keys

Price Suggestion

~23.4 keys

#40

614 votes up

335 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was accepted Sun, 30 Dec 12 06:26:40 +0000 by SirJjjon.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

first link - 7 crates for sale, no hits at bottom of market price.

second link - 1 crate for sale at top of market price. 10 bumps(maybe more), no hits.

third link - 110 bumps in all (5 days), and only 1 offer.

fourth link - top of market price, no offers.

fifth link - some sold at 8 keys each.(over a few days)

When you average out the crate it comes to 7.3 keys. Since a range helps lots of traders out, I think a fair one would be 7-8. These crates have lost their buzz. It seems as if everyone is trying very hard to sell them without success. Why would you pay so high for a crate when the valuable contents are closing in on the set price of the crate?

plus you have to use a key to open it.

None of your links actually show crates selling for 7 keys.. downvote, no real proof.

if you read my post below or my description, it was supposed to be averaging. that's why I said 7-8 instead of 8 flat.

Downvoted... Poor proof.

Nice crate 40's you got in your bp, just saying

Just because someone has those items in their backpack doesn't mean they're not allowed to give their opinion? The fact that he has no proof of these crates selling for 7 keys has nothing to do with someone having a crate 40 in their backpack.

Not to mention the whole "having one in your backpack" doesn't really do much when he's lowering the price.

While the math is solid I would like to see some more evidence of crate trades lower than 8 keys. Salvaged crates are strange in that, while the contents may not be valued much more than the crate itself, people have this weird thing that they'll stop dropping any second now and then there won't be any more of them. (can't wait for the rash of terrible suggestions when that happens)

What? He was talking to Belial, not the guy who made the suggestion. Good job on making yourself look like a complete idiot.

its simple if the price drops ppl will stop sell them

there is spider web on those crates for some reason mate !! downvoting

[color="red"]VOTE DOWN[/color]

you have 31 crates in your bp of course you would

Ssshhh. This is going to make him rich.

do not make me rich, but I'll have much more than u xD

Wait, I sa- oh I forgot to save. Agreed.

down vote why?

What has your comments with reality? I'll win anyway as prices rise. Even if the price is 5 keys, you will say .. "nooo, now have to be in 4 keys, no one offers more than 4" are just .. about lowballers.

I bought the crates at different prices and has nothing to do with their ridiculous comments that make

envious XD

Are you seriously bragging about your backpack wealth?

if you were smart, you'd realize that I'm not doing. read again plz... or learn to read

reading comprehension

"do not make me rich, but I'll have much more than u xD"

"envious XD"

I realise that I'll get an ultra mature response, but are you twelve?

"learn to read reading comprehension"

Just stop.

Give us a reason why you vote down. Except the tons of crates in your bp that you probably bought at higher prices in hopes of profiting, but failed.

Had 2 guys want to sell to me at 7 keys told them no longer accepting.

And very hard to sell at 8 keys.

But I don't know if there's sellers at 7 keys. 8 keys flat seems best.

this shit is dropping

http://www.tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8878595

lol he's buying at 7 and selling at 7 and 1 ref

http://www.tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8877665

dropped his price to 7 key 2 rec each

http://www.tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8904999

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7158543

If this are all gone by tomorrow morning, I'm accepting 8 key flat. If not, this one seems more accurate.

Yes, link a trade that doesn't auto bump from a guy who's never online to accept adds. Great idea!

"posted 16 hours ago"

"last bump 15 hours ago"

I couldn't have noticed that when I posted. But thanks for pointing it out.

i could maybe see 8 flat. 7 is too low. also sapper is undervalued from my experience. i have sold 2 in the past 5 days for 14+ keys in items.

i agree. if you average all of it's contents, the price turns out to be around 6.5 keys

you're right, huntsman dropped last night.

but you guys forgot about the chance of an unusual being unboxed

so crate #45 should be worth a few keys, eh?

yeah, if you do it your way, but the crates price are not dependent on the items inside

because all normal crates are worth a weapon but the contents inside are all worth more than a weapon, but that doesn't change the price of the crate

Derp. The cost of unboxing common crates is the key, not the crate. Not many common crates uncrate stuff worth more than a key.

Actually no, the "unusual" does not drop at the same rate as the other items so when you factor it in you have to factor in the decreased drop rate

The REAL question is... do the items drop in value, and thus the crates? Or does the crate drop in value, and the items will drop? Dangerous for the market.

well a lot of people open crates for potential profit... so why would you open this expensive crate for it's contents when you could just buy the contents for less?

those items are dropping only because ppl puts there keys to uncrate and not to invest!! i think its the perfect time to invest in salvaged since 30 is dropping too.. they will rise as soon as the 50 drops they will rise crates and contains too but still the price is very low to up vote. the market has nothing to fear from drops in prices. a good trader should know what salvaged`s is all about.

Your math is off. You didn't take into account the keys used to unlock those crates. You need to add +5 to your equation if that's how you're trying to do it since each of the 5 items requires a key to unlock it from the crate. Either way, downvote. People need to stop panicking with these.

The keys used to unbox do not count.

We take the prices of all unboxed contents / the number of the contents.

I had struggles to sell 20 of these bastards for 8 keys each..

Btw. we all know that you 98 crate #40s :p

if we take keys into account, we should suggest 6-7 keys. so, my friend, your math is even worse ^^

You should make a new suggestion at 6-7 keys.

i^d rather not, as only piece of information i have regarding price of these is that i sold my SF grenade launcher for 8 keys + crate40, and bought a big kill with that crate40+6 keys. and that was 4 days ago, anything could happen between then and now.

Haha you guys are all retarded. I know I'm probably one of the only people on this site with a Masters degree, but I didn't realize most people don't even have a high school diploma. :P

sounds like you've had a merry christmas

please discuss this with my thesis advisor.

Good job being a complete jerk.

Also if you have a masters degree why the hell are you into tf2 trading?

Because it's an easy way to make money in my spare time when I was in school.

as i took it personally, and there's no other way to follow but prove my claims: here it is:

you get crate40 for P keys, then use 1 more key to open it. in the end, you've used P+1 keys to get something from the crate. pipboy 3000 says average return from the crate is 7,3 keys, so unless 7,3>P (ie return>cost) you'll be making a loss on the long run. therefore, he says, P should be 7-8 keys.

if we take that 1 key into account, we need to have 7,3>P+1, in other words, P should be in 6-7 keys range (actually, prices dropped even further. so average is now 6,85 keys, so P would need to be in 5-6 keys)

i hope i proved my point, and also that you having a degree doesn't make you error-free.

If you have a Masters Degree..

Why is your math so bad?

Btw. I saw your comments on the other suggestions for the Crate #40, you are pretty mad.

Definitely not a master degree in math.

If p is the price of the crate, to obtain the item you need to use1 key, so you spent p+1.

Now, since each item has the same probability

5*(p+1) = 11.5 + 11.5 + 4.5 + 4.5 + 3 (sum of the prices in keys for each item)

thus 5*(p+1) = 35

thus p+1 = 35/5 = 7

thus p = 6

^ Assuming equal chance of unboxing each item. Unusuals... Actually, I don't want to get the notifications/responses so I'll stop now.

Too many of these on the market. Limitation of Outpost's search results causes price gauging to go unchecked. Because of that, we have to use buyer's listings to determine the value of this item.

8 keys seems to be the highest that this fetches on the buyer's market: http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/65141919

Very few pay 8 keys. The majority pay 7. The majority of buyers have listings that turn around and sell the very same crates that they buy for 7-8 keys. Most ask for 9-10 keys. The fact that they are still paying 7-8 keys for these leads me to believe that they have success selling them for 9-10.

I think the current price range is slightly high, but this one is slightly low. I will wait to see where the price moves before I decide.

They could be hoarding them until crate #50 comes out with like, crate #105.

Downvote!!!!!

of course you'd downvote, it is the most valuable item in your bp.

In your average, you forgot to add the 1% chance of getting an unusual... Flawed proof in my opinion. Plus I have 60 crates #40, lol !

More seriously I think the price should be lowered so that I can buy more.

Upvote !

This is perfect proof of what's wrong with backpack.tf

Alright well im gonna stay neutral on this , first off these might stop dropping therefore its price will go up (just like like #30). But at the same time its contents are dropping, well i will stay neutral on this I cant really decide which side has a better point

people have been saying "Oh yea, crate 50 is coming out soon" since september. As soon as it does come out, yea you might be right. The contents are no longer sought after it seems, therefor the price should drop. If the price stayed the same and contents dropped, noone would open the crate.

due to speculation, the price of this crate has taken a massive plunge... when crate 50 drops, this price will drop EVEN FURTHER. why? Cause everybody who bought crates in hopes of selling them for a profit will start selling their crates. Leading to another drop in price. Face it.. it's a bubble. too much speculation. in time, this crate will slowly rise in price. give it a year after it stops dropping.

The items in the crate have consistently been coming down, and the Huntsman in particular has taken a hit due to the release of the Festive version. Also, as we all know the price of keys has gone up due to Steam Market. Keys are worth more aftermarket value than before because Steam Market takes out scamming and the risks of paypal (could also argue that Ref is worth less now). And finally, the crate is still dropping (and has actually gained, I remember a time of less than 20,000 crates in public bp's not too long ago. People are hoarding these instead of unboxing). People are just salty that when they set up trades on Outpost and said "NO OFFERS UNDER 13 KEYS LOWBALLZZZZ" that they got hammered and people got too hyped over the crate possibly not dropping anymore. ONCE the crate stops dropping, then you should have that inflation, not before.

I was in a trade server and someone was trying to sell 2 s. widowmakers for a unpainted bill. he had no luck.

Cool story bro. This isn't a s. widowmaker price suggestion.

not that long ago i sold mine for 9.5 keys...and i have one in my bp for 9 keys (lime bills) i was happy to pay that price...and i sold crate 40 in about 5 mins...not that hard if you try...outpost dont really prove much for me as its the land of lowballers...just saying it is possible to get it 8-10

Up Vote ! I agree to this price by alot since the new naughty`s have festive Huntsman its over shadowed by one of the best key strange in crate 40.

Yes i totally agree with that, but the thing is, what about the other stranges that lie within , such as the sapper, and and the other strange that was worth a lot (sorry i forgot what its name was)

Aside from Unusuals, the Huntsmans and the Sappers were the only valuables in them.

I agree that The strange sapper would help the price but u have a 2/5 chance 2 get something worth more than the crate + the key that was used.... to only be worth around 3-4 ish keys worth more is a hard change to gamble

Upvote.

Because i want to see people who hoard this crates cry :3.

I lol'd at that^

I'd actually think they would rage, not cry. LIke my friend when scarves became craftable when bought. This one just has so much voters up and down(holy f*** more than key suggestions), I dont know which side to join.

u forgot to add in the fact that it takes 5 keys to open 5 crates to get the 5 different items 36.5 - 5 = 31.5

31.5/5 = 6.3 ~ round to 7 as there has to be a risk of loss for people that open or the market will crash

Ummm, you are supposed to add the keys it takes to open them, not subtract haha.

/facepalm

not sure if ur trolling or ur bad at math but here is the logic.

here is my example with a non existent crate atm

i have 5 crate 50s. lets say they are worth 8 keys each in this case.

lets say i can unbox 5 different items.

prices of the items.

#1 - 6 keys

#2 10 keys

#3 8 keys

#4 4 keys

#5 12 keys

total: 40 keys

average price of items: 8 keys

price of crates: 8 keys

if i open all 5 crates with 5 keys that i got for free ( so there is no cost)

i get a total of 40 keys worth of stuff which makes sense because the crates are worth 8 keys each and 5 * 8 = 40. however we run into a problem here since if there is no loss in opening crates (probablility wise) then every1 will open these crates ( bc they are basically free opprotunity to get unusuals as u break even every time) and there is nothing to justify the current price of the crates or its content. WHEN THERE IS a cost implemented ( the keys u hv to use) our profit will be lower ( revenue - cost = profit) . so basically u get 40 keys in items BUT since u will hv to have 5 keys in a normal situation to open these crates WE WILL HAVE TO SUBTRACT THAT FROM UR REVENUE. therefore 40 ( revenue average price of items if u open 5 craets) -5 (cost of the keys to open) = 35 (profit)

AFTER subtracting the cost of the crates (40keys) from the profit u get ur final profit of -5 keys which makes sense as there has to be some sort of risk of losing profit (probability wise) in opening crates.

i dont know why the hell typed all that....

In this case he opened 5 crate 40s and got one of each item. And based on his math that works out to 36.5 keys total however u will need to add in the cost of opening the crates hence the reason y u subtract 5.

for some reason none of the links work for me it just comes up like this ---> http://www.2shared.com/photo/ffkR3xq9/Screen_shot_2012-12-29_at_3031.html

because tf2 outpost is having some problems at the moment.

thanks for letting me know

no proof.. i know that the price of the item in it is dropping but only doing math don't make the price of the crate itself drop.

Sapper = 11.5

Huntsman = 11.5

Holiday Punch = 4

Widowmaker = 4.5

Mantreads = 3

11.5 + 11.5 + 4.5 + 4.5 + 3 = 33

33/5 = 6.6

Not only that, but a huge risk is made when uncrating these, as the gains are small, but the losses are quite large.

yea I agree with this right now, even though the sapper will shoot through the roof once it stops dropping and there's not enough sf huntsman to feed the supply in the future..lowering the price will just make more people hoard these

upvote

great logic

will they rise again?!

Um...

Until Crate #50 This is an Upvote.

jeez only lowballers on backpack.tf

Or this makes sense because:

1. The crate is still dropping and people overhyped it not dropping (people are also hoarding these instead of unboxing, their rarity isn't improving)

2. Keys have gone up in value, which should mean this is worth less keys even if the crate has the same real world value.

3. One of the premier items in this crate, the strange huntsman, got clobbered with the release of the festive version. This reduces the value of unboxing, and should reduce the value of the crate.

4. The crate items have flooded the market and all have dropped quite a bit. Remember strange huntsmans for 20+ keys? I do. More supply, lower demand.

I remember when this crate was worth 7-8 keys, sometime during the era of 2.33 keys. Considering keys are worth more now, this suggestion is a pretty fair appreciation in price of the crate considering it keeps dropping to this day and the value of the items inside has dropped significantly.

Butthurted hoarder on backpack.tf

LETS REACH 1000 VOTES WOOPWOOPWOOP

woopwoop!!

I've luckely sold this for 9 keys 2 days ago, but yeah upvote

I've got some stats on crate #30 & #40

§30

18/12/12 - 4147

20/12/12 - 4146

25/12/12 - 4137

28/12/12 - 4141

30/12/12 - 4150

§40

18/12/12 - 20256

20/12/12 - 20341

25/12/12 - 20869

28/12/12 - 21093

30/12/12 - 21147

No clue why #30 went up since the 28th of december

Averages 1000 #40 drops per 12 days / 83 #40's per day

the 30 may have risen in numbers because people that never signed in to sights like this did so recently increasing the numbers that is at least my best bet or steam support :)

stats.tf is slow at scanning every backpack if you haven't noticed. Its not like it has the capacity to simultaneously compile every backpack every minute.

Sorry ace but what im seeing is that these are just crashing. Market is saturated @ 8 keys. Probably wont go up again until #50 *actually* comes out.