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Disclaimer: I crafted 2 of them (would of had #30 - #40 #'s too :( ) but no one seems interested in pricing this.
Buyers (that are not 1.22-1.33 ref sharks...)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7407984 2.66 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7333602 paying 1 key with offer to sell (22 hours ago) & has one in his incoming items
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7424902 1 key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7397542 1 key + undisclosed amount of "metals?"
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7409842 1x Naughty key - 1.33 - 1.66 keys - Has a flunky in his backpack (9 hours old)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7422749 swap for genuine awper hand 1 - 1.5 keys.
http://www.tf2wh.com/pricelist.php 13,890 sell flunky / 11,000 buy key = 1.26 keys 0 in stock (seen a few in stock today, they dissappear quick)
Lowend Sellers (one guy offering 1key 1ref on most of them)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7415655 2 keys (less than a hour ago)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7386815 2 keys (day old)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/73393552 2 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7402287 2 keys / 6 ref - rejected offer of a naughty key (14 hours old)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7329675 2 keys ( 2 days old)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7163147 5 ref offer / 2keys offered (twice) / 2 naughty or nice keys offer. all 3 days ago, still in backpack.
Sold (a few days old)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7268623 sold 2 keys 2 ref - 4 days old
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7162176 sold 2 keys 1 ref - 5 days ago.
Hmm 2 keys seems to be too old. 2-3 could have been the price in the first night but now I think they are ~1-1.5 keys.
I couldn't find any sellers below 2 keys, I think it's because that's what the other pricing website says this is worth.
I'll keep an eye on the 2 keys ones and see if any actually get sold. Was considering making it 1.5 keys flat because 1-2 keys is a bit wide.
I think we should accept this range first, since we don't have one currently, we can change it again later once we are sure price has fallen.
They do sell at 2 keys, this person just brought 2 @ 2 keys:- http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/5082
From
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7386815
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7402287
Made a 3rd offer on this one too:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7329675
One person buying three at 2 keys isn't very compelling evidence for the upper range. I think I agree with Woifi--1-1.5 is more accurate.
That said, I think all the new miscs are still banking on hype and are a little more expensive than usual. This will need to be changed in the near future, but for now this is a reasonable range.
I think I will take the risk of upvoting, as this is a new item with reasonable proof.