Suggestion: Mann Co. Supply Crate Key at 3.11–3.33 ref

Keys selling for 3.11 get bought up almost instantly, and the majority of people are asking for 3.33 ref, with the occasional at 3.44+ ref. (and they are all successful).

Still gathering proof.

tf2finance also showed keys at 3.30 before it traveled back in time to 1970 http://puu.sh/1H5sH

I can back this claim up. But when I saw it, they were 3.28 refined each.

That is true but outpost was down and so the trades from outpost weren't included.

while selling for 3.33 is a possibility, I do not want to take the risk of voting here, as key prices are way to fluctative.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7493210 sold @ 2.66, such a nice person

ya, saw that, didn't bother posting it though since it was open for literally 30 seconds.

Just an in-before: In before the raging suggestions to lower it back down.

Good evidence, has enough proof, upvoted

Here we go, yet another key suggestion.

http://tf2finance.com/keys/ says there selling for 3.23 ref.

You have lots and good proof. UPVOTE!

3.13 now.

Agreed it appears to be fluctuating in current range at the moment. 3.18 when I checked.

I just checked, it says 3.08 right now.

http://i.imgur.com/4zAyD.png

--Although, I DID try selling keys after I saw this, and sold 7 of my keys at 3.33 in about five minutes. I think 3.11-3.33 would be a better range, but I guess I won't vote for now.

It's been this range for 2 weeks, so I have to upvote this

Saw someone in a trade server buying for 3.22, not sure but the bottom range might need to go up too.

I thought about that, but its still possible to buy @ 3.11

The guy selling for 3.22 and buying for 3.11 has 0 keys in stock, which goes against the 3.11 theory as it shows people wont sell theirs for 3.11 but will easily buy at 3.22.

You only have 2 other 3.11 sellers, one of which only sells for 3.11 when they buy in bulk. I'd need more than a bulk seller and one other guy to upvote this.

the problem is most 3.11 sales occur on a server/OP trades get closed almost immediatley when it does happen, so its a bit harder to prove.

True enough. I'm just not going to vote on any key prices, just because they're so unstable and as you said, kind of hard to prove.

I agree with you, yesterday i spent a few hours hopping between trade servers looking for 3.11 ref keys. it takes some time but is possible. I think i managed to buy 16 keys. never higher than 3.11 and a handful at 3. I also agree with the high end. I put up a trade on outpost at 3.33 to test the waters and within 2 bumps i had sold 15 keys.

Tf2 Finance is at 3.15 refined now... and it is up and running normally. Not sure where people are seeing 3.28-3.3 though

I sell over 100 keys a day @ 3.33 and buy just as much for 3.22 up voted

I've been selling keys at 3.33 for a few days now and buying at 3.22.

In trade servers, while asking for keys at 3.22, it usually only takes 5-10 minutes to get a bunch of keys.

While selling on OP at 3.33, I can sell groups of keys within a fairly short amount of time.

I'm not going to vote because the changing of key prices scares me. However, I do think the lower range should be raised because I haven't seen anyone successfully buy keys at 3.11 for a little while now.

In servers you can get keys for 3.11. You won't get 50 a day, but you can still get them. But what you say is true: selling keys for 3.33 is quite easy now and I've been selling over 200 of them the past week.

meh, keys goin up who gives a SH** any ways upvote !

too good proof for the price not to change.it's sad really. key prices will soar higher and higher with each suggestion until only the rich can afford it. its a good time to stock up on refs. horrible time to buy keys. best to invest in items nowadays

As much as I don't like it, I'll have to upvote...

"But why Papa LimeSheep? You hate raising key prices!"

As to that, I say shut up random street orphan. I sold 10 keys while the outpost was down for prices ranging from exactly 3.11-3.33, and they were buyers! As much as I hate to admit it, keys are going up. No denying it now.

It's just easy to buy them at 3.22ref. and is possible to buy at 3.11ref aswell. I've downvoted.

its certainly possible to buy at 3.22 (which is why i didn't make it a flat 3.33) but the vast majority sell at 3.33

So? Everytime I bump my trade buying keys at 3.11ref I get a friend invite and buy 1-2keys:D There is a crapton of ppl selling them at 3.33ref so there must be competition. Also, when you raise this guide's price they even go like 3.55ref. When you accept that they go to 4ref and etc. 3.11-3.22 is a great price. Keep that up

this site reflects the current selling prices of items. Keys sell for 3.11-3.33 ref theres no questioning that.

http://tf2finance.com/keys/

It says 3.13

3.21

3.11. Keys like to fluctuate.

Omg people, just leave the keys alone oO It's easy to buy them at 3ref and it's easy to sell them at 3,33. No reason to keep changing the damn price by 1 freaking scrap every other day. People will keep buying at 3ref and selling at 3,33 anyway, such retarded price range doesn't change a single thing.

[b]BIG, FAT DOWNVOTE[b] from me.

1) This site reflects the CURRENT price.

2) No, its not easy to buy at 3 ref. I've had a trade bumping every hour on OP (and occasionally every half hour) for the last week and a half, and guess how many i've bought---11. 11 keys in 10~ days is not easy in any way shape or form.

3) I'll happily buy your keys for 3 ref.

1) In case of keys it doesn't reflect anything as people buy and sell it at different price all the time and there is no way to track all those trades and their prices.

The thing with OP proofs is that it's not that reliable and you can't really be sure how many keys do people sell/buy judging only by "added" comments or the sellers "keys in stock" / "keys sold" - he could have spent the keys on a game or some other items. I've had some trades selling/buying keys and lots of people would add and trade me without making any comments in the trade.

2) I bought 6 keys within 2 days for 3ref each with 1 hour autobump on without any problems. Would probably buy more if I had more metal.

3) How about I buy your entire backpack for 3 ref.

1) yes, but for most of my proofs i listed the sale number at what i could see.

2) Sales at 3 ref are virtually non-existant especially with buyers @ 3.11-3.22 existing on OP.

3) My point was at least valid, if they can be bought so easily for 3 ref then you can always buy more, whereas your comment is just sarcastic nonsense.

1) Bigger sale numbers were presented mostly in trades that have been open for at least a week or so. In this case I wouldn't be so sure if all of them were sold at the same price as the seller probably adjusted the price everytime it changed.

2) Sales at 3ref are non-existant cause everytime someone sells it this cheap, he gets sold out within minutes and closes his trade. I think there is no way to track such trades.

3) Your point was at least retarded. If I can buy for 3ref and sell for 3,33, then why would I do charity and sell to you with no profit? Think before you post, smartass.

"Sales at 3ref are non-existant cause everytime someone sells it this cheap, he gets sold out within minutes"

"I can buy for 3ref and sell for 3,33"

Thanks for proving my suggestion. Appreciate it.

Oh really? As far as I can read, your suggestion is 3,11-3,33, not 3-3,33.

Also, please don't go this low and don't quote just parts of someone's post without the context.

Tbh, I don't mind your suggestion THIS much as it's still better than the previous one, the thing I'm raging about is the fact that you guys just can't sit one fkn day without trying to change the key's price. What's the issue? Got too much free time? Wanna impress each other by proving that TODAY you are the one who's right? Ya'll just need to get laid and that's all.

I in-befored this! :)

how so? I'm not saying that the price should be lower, it's just that the price range is actually a bit broader.

and what is more important: I'm raging about the fact that ppl try to change the price too much and too often and the effect is exactly what Swag Like Caillou said ;)

This site is getting stupid with keys and ya'll are helping.

1) Ya'll are not only reflecting the CURRENT price, but you are also INFLUENCING the future price.

Every time we establish a higher price, the sellers sell for 1 scrap more than that. Thus, within a week of the new price, there is outpost evidence that we need to raise the price.

Why are ya'll still so blind? People need to buy keys for all expensive items. Therefore, there is always a demand for them. Sites like this are enabling sellers to claim they are being fair. At this rate, something is going to break in the market down the road.

You do realize key sellers dont pay attention to backpack.tf? people were asking for 3.11-3.33 ref when backpack.tf had the high end at 3. And some people have already started to sell between 3.44-3.66 ref, backpack.tf doesnt influence key prices.

The supply is decreasing (due to the market place) and the demand has stayed the same. Decreased supply and same demand requires a price raise.

"You do realize key sellers dont pay attention to backpack.tf? " SOOOOO WRONG!

edit - So only buyers look at backpack.tf now? This is a ridiculous argument that almost every person trying to raise keys makes. I don't understand how anyone can say that.

fuck this im just gonna buy off the market there are thousands of keys going at 1.85 dollars.

I would say that you could buy keys for $1.25 somewhere else instead but I'm not going to spoil the secret.

Like 6 suggestions ago, I found posts of key sellers saying exactly what I am claiming. ON THEIR POSTS. They said things like "Selling for 3.11 ref". And when someone would complain, the seller would state, "Keys were __ they will be ____ on backpack.tf soon, all I have to do is wait." And sure enough it would happen.

I am going to remember you Awesome, not because I am mad or you or anything. But because I want to see what you say at the end of next month (jan). Many people on here disagreed with me last time I said this like a long time ago. Now many people see I am right. I am convinced you will too.

PS - supply of keys increased after halloween. Building up to christmas, I mean. Yet prices increased, and the steam market wasnt even here. GREED! No other excuse is available.

dude, you are a motha fukken champion. 100% agreed.

The major key sellers on Outpost are always going to try to sell for higher than the price listed on this site.

Sadly this site is supposed to be reflecting current market prices. If we don't give accurate prices then we would be wrong. And possible manipulating the price. So here's my question: If we don't give the accurate current market price, what do we do?

twiddle your thumbs and stare out into space.

It's official, I will not buy anymore in outpost keys. More and more the prices rise for no apparent reason, and causing increasing trade with keys difficult. It gets my vote no, because they raise prices of keys is absurd.

English good very.

And there is a reason.

1) Keys went up around halloween as the demand to unbox increased.

2) Steam added the Market place, which cuts the supply of keys because people no longer have any reason to buy keys from the store.

And the combination leads to an increase in key price.

the supply is decreasing, demand is the same has the same effect as a constant supply and higher demand. Both result in a price increase.

You kknow what I never understood about Marketplace? People selling Naughty keys and even regular keys for like 2.70 or $3.00. WHY?! YOU CAN GET THEM FROM THE STORE FOR $2.49 WITH UNIMITED SUPPLY AND NO WAIT!

Edit: weird place for a rant but I needed to get it out :P

ive got to say this

KEY PRICE IS HIGH BECUASE PEOPLE KEEP INCREASING IT OM PRICELISTs

that causes inflation

inflation=bad

lets go back to our 2.33 keys for 3 months ago

because noone wants metal, there's too much of it and needs to be removed

Just used 300 ref to fabricate headgear. I think I just did you guys a huge favor.

Against my wishes I will give this an upvote.

This was a well thought out and researched suggestion and allows for a larger marigin of error than the previous suggestion.

tf2finance states the current price at close to 3.22, right in the middle of this range.

Good job to you sir. Well researched and well deserving of my rep.

I could care less if keys were 5 ref a piece. The only reason I have metal is to make change.

Metal = Useless garbage

Swag Like Caillou is completely right. I also tried to explain this in one of the long gone key price suggestions.

What can you do.. Nothing.. Because people will continue to price keys above market value(backpack.tf price), and those ppl will continue to make proof suggestions based on there keys selling for 1 scrap more

ya, well now you're treading on interesting ground. backpack.tf's goal, afaik, is to give an accurate price for each item, not be dictate what an item should sell for.

HOWEVER people will always use spreadsheets to base the price of their items so it brings up an interesting point.

Backpack.tf bases its prices on successful trades, and traders base their prices on backpack.tf

It's a never ending loop.. Anyone with a brain can work that out.. And thats all of us..

Anyways.. Personally I think were just watching the death of metal price in USD. With all the people just botting alt accounts ofcourse this was going to happen.

*Edit*.. If backpack.tf bases its prices on successfull trades why are we even voting for prices?... *edit*

our votes aren't definite. admins will look into a suggestion and accept it if the proof is there no matter what the votes are. tbh i don't really understand the purpose of voting, suggesting on the other hand makes sense.

http://steamcommunity.com/groups/meetthestats/discussions/0/846938350760615276/

a real chicken or the egg situition huh?

Keys, I'm from the future.

Keys will be worth 2 keys in the future.

where the fuck are you from? february?

Ppshhh in the future keys will go 1:1 with buds, and to make people still want keys to unbox valve will up the unusual chance to 50% and unusuals/buds/keys will all go to hell and the mann-conomy will die.

How does that make any sense? How does a = b but b =/= b? Keys will only be worth 2 keys if Valve stops selling keys, which well never happen.

fuck logic :)

I am going to UPVOTE! because this is what buyers are paying and I can sell them easily for 3.33.

last suggestion was accepted a week ago with score -38 and other 2 are currently running. all of these suggestions will have -score but moderators will accept for some unknown reason. the whole problem is that price is rising too fast everyone is nervous and wants to buy for 3,33 because they think they will rise. and they re right because we set price according to them. so why not to stop rising and keep recent price for about month? i think we wont need to change it after this because sellers will understand there is no reason to sell for 3,44 and maybe people will buy at 3,33 but when we set price according to them it will be already scrap more. i think we shouldnt do such an inflation

finance 3,09 right now

Upvoted, I sold 14 keys for 3.33 each in 15 minutes already.

Doesn't matter if this is downvoted to hell this will prob get accepted too lol, the reason why people raise the price in outpost are looking at the current bacpack.tf price and once tons of people start using key prices from here others do too and some ask for more, its people like you who are inflating the prices of keys by a shit ton, i can easily go on market place and buy keys at 1.84 way less then the shop or people looking for shit ton of ref.

totally agree! i wish they remove key voting, put a fixed price for it, but thats probably not gonna happen

More people don't know how to use words like 'inflation' and 'manipulation'.

I provide a link to help once again.

http://steamcommunity.com/groups/meetthestats/discussions/0/846940247671000891

I'm going to say what i say on all key suggestions. That's a very sensible suggestion, although i doubt it's going to be accepted. The keys rose because of halloween. Because everyone wanted an unusual with a new effect. That's when the key started to rose. Not, what the key sellers thought of is that if the price of a key is eg. 2.66 ref, they are gonna sell for 2.77. Then, when the price gets updated to 2.77, people sell for 2.88 and so on. Most people that buy the keys are unexperienced, and that's why the keys are rising, and the sellers, which are mainly rich as fuck people with unusuals, are getting a load of metal for it.

Key for now should be not less then 4 ref.

1) they dont sell for 4 ref. they struggle to sell at 3.44 ref.

2) No, just no.

U know something i am new trader - i will keep checking the prices and selling items and buying weps. :D

Keys can be found for $1.25-$1.35 relatively easily. Refined metal is $.43 USD. If you divide 1.35 by 0.43, you get 3.13953488372093, which is ~3.11. If keys are so readily available at that rate, it wouldn't make much sense to raise it far above that.

Also, everyone selling at http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7456148 3.33 bought their keys for less http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7460136 so why give them the satisfaction of knowing they've gotten keys and sold them, made a profit, when they're really just a key selling "middleman" that blocks people who use keys for trading (not profiting via metal, trading) from the original source of more reasonable pricing.

This suggestion will only feed the beast.

A couple points, there has never really been a correlation btwn $ value and ref value. look at buds, if you buy buds via paypal then sell the buds for keys and then sell the keys for paypal you make a couple $.

It's quite easy to sell keys at 3.33 ref and its also possible to buy them for 3.11-3.22, hence the range. But it is completely possible to buy/sell at 3.33 ref.

Also, its almost impossible to sell ref for .43$ i sold 500~ refined about a week ago and it took me 3~ weeks to sell it all for $0.40-$0.42. (which brings the ref value of keys up to 3.22~)

Finally, the purpose of backpack.tf is to reflect the current prices of items. So, by not updating prices then this site ends up being inaccurate.

All of you are the reason why I stopped in the economy. Personally, I actually use my discount (real money) keys and refined metal to make stuff. As the price of metal deflates to nothing, the key maybe the dominant currency. In the meantime, the price to craft stuff has never changed, nor has valve's price of keys and other fake stuff.

This is looking most accurate right now. 3.33 ref sellers really can't be denied at this point, tf2finance is hovering around 3.22 so the range is pretty much perfect. I'd like to give it a bit more time personally speaking. I'll come back to this one this evening if another admin doesn't take action by then.

Are you at least going to close the other ones then?

Back when I first started playing in July I could buy 3 keys for 6.66 refined easily...now it can barely get you 2 keys. What a shame.

Oh god so much hate here.~

A reason why I would never make a key suggestion. xD

Peace. :P

I don't mean to brag but... 100% suggestion accuracy.

(Nothing to do with only two suggestions and only ones that I knew would succeed with evidence. ;) )

pppshhh 96% and 27 accepted :P

Well 4 of mine were not accepted. I had to reopen a suggestion two times because the upper value was resetted. And the third one got suddenly a good offer (2 months without an offer in that range btw~) after I suggested a lower price. And the 4th one, hmm I didn't know. :/

i don't really mind the hate (tbh i expected more, also i really couldnt care as most of it is from users who are pissed off they can no longer afford keys).

Whats most annoying is, i like to look at all the comments people make which is fucking impossible with the shitstorm key suggestions turn into.

Yeah quite funny how people post the same thing over and over again. Keys rose because of halloween, they should go back, downvoted. I bought one for 3 ref, downvoted. Don't touch key prices, downvoted. I don't want them to go up, downvoted. This site is shit, downvoted. :3

I'm getting sick of people who keep trying to sell a scrap higher than the site. We need to keep the key price as stable as possible. Unless Valve changes the price in some way e.g steam market, we don't change the price. The TF2 economy is almost as bad as the US economy...

Except by instituting the marketplace they DID change the price, and as a result of this change, new keys won't enter the market (far fewer anyway).

You'd be surprised at how much backpack.tf influences the price. People who sell keys don't want refined metal, unless they can turn a profit. So they try to buy keys cheaper and sell them for higher, yet nobody is selling them for less than the max backpack.tf price. So they go a scrap higher than the site. So they turn a profit. This wouldn't change anything if the sites didn't change the price constantly, insisting they have proof. We need a stable key price, that doesn't change unless Valve changes it somehow.

Oh look, keys are 3.11. I'll be an asshat and sell them at 3.22 then

*1 week later*

Oh look, keys are 3.22, I'll be an asshat and sell them at 3.33 then

ad infinitum. People do look at key prices on backpack.tf, they just sell it at 1 scrap above what backpack.tf says, first comment is 100% correct

oh boy keys are 3.11-3.22, I AM an ass hat so i sell them successfully at 3.44 and even one at 3.66

Congratulations on making 2 scrap profit. That's like 10 cents, hope you can make a living off that. I doubt you actually play the game, considering your Outpost profile is just full of "50% OFF QUICKSELL UNUSUALS", high buyouts, and asking for "offers" on Festive items that everyone already knows the value of, it's just an hidden excuse to highball until someone pays more than what it's actually worth, all coupled with the bullshit notion of "adding [someone] for a fast trade" increases the speed at which you trade items at.

Are there no job opportunities in Bulgaria?

2 scrap profit on 100 key sales a day is a lot.

100 key sales a day x 2 scrap profit (10 cents) = 1000 cents per day = 10 dollars, which is nothing, for a day's "work". Unless you're selling 100 keys per hour (which I highly doubt), it's not worthwhile. And even then, if you are selling 100 keys per hour, that doesn't take into account that you've got to eat, you're not a damn robot, pay internet bills, electricity bills, and most importantly, water bills because if you aren't so engrossed into TF2 trading, you'd realise that humans require water to live.

Granted there isn't much effort involved, but it's the fact that the time involved to make so little money relative to other options is why this isn't a valid method of making a living, so the people doing all this reselling crap and not playing the game are just greedy but stupid.

$10 a day for doing absolutely nothing is a lot actually. Also, i'd just like to point out, noone is planning on getting a normal days pay from TF2.

I do most of my trading while im in class, so its not like i have anything better to do.

i am 15 LOL, and i ask for offers on the festives because i use them and dont want to sell them and i dont have high buyouts on anything

Those that complain key prices are too high, maybe we should just stop selling you keys then. If you can afford to pay our prices, quit complaining.

Make it so noone can afford our prices then we'll be forced to lower.

Upvote. Sold 12 keys at this price. Had ppl wanting keys at my price.

I agree too, sold 45 keys at 3.33. The people are crazy and they love keys.

Tf2finance has been hovering around a 3.22 ref average for 24 hours now. People have been successfully and regularly buying/selling at 3.33 ref for a long while now, it should most certainly be within the range.

And, hey! A positive score for an accepted key suggestion. How bout that