The evidence:

(DUPED) Exibit A: http://www.tf2items.com/item/1302178262

Evidence: http://tf2-trader.com/index.php?topic=19372.0

- A buyout of ~15 buds. Knowing this seller, this price is probably 70-80 percent of the actual price, but since it is a dupe, extra care must be taken when considering this price.

Evidence: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5758569

- At the bottom there is a mixed offer of ~13 MAX in unusuals + 5 MAX in games. lets say 14-15 counting overpay. Seller recjected it apparently but it turns out it was sold to that owner. I cant see much more being added on top of that and without a screenie we can only speculate, but it gives a good idea of the price. (Note: we do not know around when it was duped so this could be an "Clean" sale)

(CLEAN) Exibit B: http://www.tf2items.com/item/1360403469

Evidence: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5621493

- Some nice unconfirmed c/os reaching up to ~17. It eventually sold for a 13th hour bonk boy, another unlisted unusual with B/os of 20,25,and 30 on market. Pretty much an overpriced halloween misc at the moment. It probably was a quicksale seeing what happens next...

Evidence: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7049426

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7051004

- First link shows this dude QS the milkman he bought w/ the bonk boy, later it shows he is selling nine buds (all with history from next owner). Did he really sell it for ONLY NINE BUDS + sweets? EDIT: I talked to the new owner and It was confirmed to be sold for 10 buds

Evidence: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7055749

Current owner, has b/o of 20 buds with not so good offers, best can be the harvest moon one at 13-14 MAX?

(CLEAN) Exibit C: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6670782

- Had it for awile, has a b/o of 20 but having trouble getting near that.

(C. MOON) Tier comparison: http://backpack.tf/unusuals/219/Milkman

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7509201

-BP.tf shows about 15-18 and owner has it up for a 18 b/o. But... kind of hard to use this becuase it is 1 of 1 : /

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- MAXIMUM: 16

- This may seem high considering that a duped has a 15 b/o but we really dont want to UNDERVALUE this hat. It IS god-tier and has received offers/sales of up to 17 in the past including a 13th hour bonk-boy, unconfirmed 17 mixed, 15 mixed.

- It might be wise to give the benefit of a doubt that clean can reach 16

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- Minimum: 13

- Considering realist offers only, the h. moon cap + bud which can be ~12. Past sale of ~15+ mixed and the 13th hour bonk boy at 15+ can justify 13 buds as a normal low end. Any lower would be desparate or quickselling.

- All in all, I would say this range is VERY conservative, given the god-tier effect + god-tier hat on nice class, I am surprised no-one has got any realistic offers