Currently, the price for a Squad Surplus Voucher is 1.33-1.44. In this proof, I will demonstrate two things: i) there is enough buyer interest to raise the upper price boundary to 1.66, and ii) there is not enough seller interest to keep the current lower price boundary.

i) SELLERS: If the current range of 1.33 – 1.44 is correct, we should see successful sellers asking in this range, and no bites when they ask for higher.

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7570495[/url] – The trade that sparked my interest in the subject. PRICE: 1.66,

OFFERS: bought for 1.66 in seconds. Proof of trade completion: [url]http://i.imgur.com/NMcIQ.png [/url]

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7524689[/url] – PRICE: 1.44.

OFFERS: one recent add. Voucher not in seller’s bp -> infer that it has been sold

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7352436 [/url] – PRICE: 1.44.

OFFERS: Seems to be sold.

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6820723 [/url] – PRICE: 1.77.

OFFERS: One offering 1.77, one offering 1.66, one offering Ze Goggles + 0.33 (worth total of 1.66).

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6664730 [/url] – PRICE: offers.

OFFERS: Festive Grenade Launcher for 2 vouchers (5 days ago – currently F. Launcher is 1.33-2, should have been slightly higher 5 days ago)

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7410490 [/url] – PRICE: offer.

OFFERS: 1.66 (4 days ago)

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6391539[/url] – PRICE: 2.33 (!!).

OFFERS: adds from 1 week ago, 3-4 days ago. One offer of Ze Goggles + 0.33 (adds up to 1.66), declined. One offer of a choice of 3 festives (Buff Banner, Axtinguisher, Ubersaw, Frontier Justice) (festives currently range from 0.88-1.33 => significant overpay).

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7263989 [/url] – PRICE: offer.

OFFERS: 1.33 (declined), 1.66 (had C/O), 2.00 (ultimately sold for this offer)

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7536782 [/url] – PRICE: 2.00.

OFFERS: Sold for this price.

As one can see, it certainly is possible to sell for 1.66 – you might be even able to get away with 2.00. I ultimately chose a more conservative upper boundary of 1.66, however.

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ii) BUYERS: If the current range of 1.33 – 1.44 is correct, we should see successful buyers asking for less.

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7568496 [/url] – WANTS: Crafted Pyromancer’s Mask for ToD Ticket + SS Voucher.

RESULT: No takers, been 12 hours.

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7081345 [/url] – WANTS: 1.00.

RESULT: No takers, been 2 weeks.

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7202049 [/url] – WANTS: 1.00.

RESULT: No takers, been 1 week

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7192701 [/url] – WANTS: 1.00.

RESULT: No takers, been 1 week

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7360209 [/url] – WANTS: 1.00.

RESULT: No takers, been 1 week

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7050829 [/url] – WANTS: 1.00.

RESULT: One person offering 1.33 -> declined by buyer

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7389030 [/url] – WANTS: 1-1.11. RESULT: No takers, been 6 days

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7524477 [/url] – WANTS: 1.11.

RESULT: No takers, been 1 week

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7510715 [/url] – WANTS: 1.11. RESULT: No takers, been 1 week

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7075379 [/url] – WANTS: 1.11.

RESULT: No takers, been 2 weeks

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7517058 [/url] – WANTS: 1.33.

RESULT: No takers, been 2 days.

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7517057 [/url] – WANTS: 1.33.

RESULT: No takers, been 2 days.

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7056299 [/url] – WANTS: name tag for voucher (name tag worth 1.11-1.33).

RESULT: No takers, been 2 weeks

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7499464 [/url] – WANTS: 1.33.

RESULT: No takers, been 2 days

[url] http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7120687 [/url] – WANTS: 1.33.

RESULT: No takers, been 1 week

What can we conclude here? Most people are unwilling to sell for 1.33 or less.

NOTE: It is important to understand that Squad Surplus Vouchers are a niche market. Tour of Duty Tickets are more popular because of the difficulty in finding 5 other people who deserve to receive items from the vouchers (skill- and personality-wise). Thus, you will see a lot less people selling and buying them. However, from the proof given, I believe that there is enough demand from buyers to warrant increasing the price. Perhaps the Steam Community Market ([url] http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Squad%20Surplus%20Voucher [/url]) has eliminated most of the available vouchers for sale on Outpost.

Regardless, I would love to hear what you guys think!