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hmm none of those are actually selling for below 6 keys
Someone was, but it seems like he already sold it
6 keys flat might work better. One of those seemed to have gotten sold fairly quickly and the other one has someone interested already.
It might be time for 6 flat, but this jump is too big: anything below 6 is still a quicksell, and your proof links enforce this fact.
Prices of festival items go up, DOWN
And do you have proof of that?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7473304 - bought for 7 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7511572 - wants to buy 6.5 keys(4 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7164435 - wants to buy 7 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7621932 -sold 8 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7515537- sold 7 keys (see backpack)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7558150 -sold 7 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7554914 -sold 6.5 keys
Quick-sell price different from the actual price
6 flat seems reasonable from your proofs.
The links you provided with actual buyouts sold within a day of being listed. The one asking for offers has a top offer of 6 keys made a day ago, but a sample of one is inconclusive when the window of time is that small. I see nothing in your links to suggest that this item is at most 6 keys, only that is at least 6 keys.
I need to see a few unsold at 6 keys to consider 6 keys the high end.
Buyer 6 keys, obvious stock piling
That link proves that these are at least 6 keys, but I need to see some evidence that 6 is the high end; either some two day old listings with 6 keys buyout, many listings with 6 keys buyout, buyers' trades with success at 5 keys, etc.
Outpost isn't that flooded with these things: http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/66632135
About 400 trades listed or bumped in the past 2 days, so we should be able to use buyouts and completed sellers' trades to gauge this price.
I'm talking about 5.5 keys being not justified. Sorry if that wasn't obvious.