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That's a bubbling beanie, I forgot to add that lol.
It would be more helpful if you could find out what the hat was traded for when pricing it the first time.
From what I can tell, he took that offer, because shortly afterwards he listed a planets phantom for sale (http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6805677), and the item history of the beanie shows it going into the seller's backpack (http://backpack.tf/item/799990853)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6605583
yup there it is.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6574502
also traded for a flies baker (~1 bud).
All in all I agree to your suggested reange seams reasonable, upvoted.^^