I don't understand traders sometimes, I really don't. There are no trades on OP that have this clearly sold for more than a key. There are unsolds all the way down to 4.33, and then the next level down are people who are selling for a key. I'm going to have to assume that this is because all the trades in the middle have been bought up, because a 30 % drop in the overall price of an item is a huge crash. A bigger factor is the current warehouse price:

Warehouse

http://www.tf2wh.com/item.phpid=754;1;875861d445a2dc922af1a88f1fcf8338

Anyway, that's my justification for the range staying at 4 ref.

Unsold for 5 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7672612 - Unsold for 5 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7638587 - Unsold for 5 ref

Unsold for 4.66 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7612353 - Unsold for 4.66

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7603589 - Unsold for 1 key + 1.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6805592 - Unsold for 4.77

Unsold for 4.33 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7608740 - Unsold for 4.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7332941 - Unsold painted for 4.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7562897 - Unsold for 4.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7504222 - Unsold for 4.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7625741 - Unsold for 4.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7068076 - Unsold for 1 key + 1 ref

Selling/Buying for 1 key/3ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7638963 - Selling for 1 key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7660888 - Selling for 1 key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7346809 - Selling for 3 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7671068 - Bought for 1 key

I don't like it, but I don't know what else to do with this evidence. I mean, c'mon, the 3 ref one isn't even SOLD.