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19 pages of these on outpost, and here are some tasty links.
Explanation of links up there:
L1: selling for 2 keys
L2: selling for 2 keys+2 ref
L3: buying for 1 key 2 ref, best offer he got was 2keys 1 ref
L4: 2 key offer inside hidden posts
L5: none sold for 5 keys (how surprising!)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7715241 3 stranges (2 carbonado BK +mantreads) for festive rocket launcher (worth 3 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7024871 - a guy in offers asks if he could get 2 keys for treads
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7431850 - a guy looking for quicksells got 1 pair of mantreads for 6 ref
Sold for 3 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7716738
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7664891
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7040236 - a guy wants spreadsheet price, last good offer he got was 3 keys
Unsold at 3 keys and higher:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7510366 (though he got a 2 keys+smth offer)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7514621
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7663894
A real gem! Sold for 6 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7590437
Conclusion: while it is too early to set the price at 2-2.5 keys, the current suggested range 2-3 keys covers most of the deals on outpost, including both sellers and buyers. You can still sell for 3 keys if you have some patience and bump your trade frequently. People looking for quicksells are quite successful at buying for 2 keys (and even lower). And not to mention sellers selling for 2 keys ;)
In the end i saw 1 (now) sold for 2keys. (L1), thy guy with 6ref got 5 pairs, but none from that offer. So i dunno if the 2 keys are justified atm, but it goes into that direction for sure.
Well, after baloo's "conservative bump" all we needed to find was an actual trade with a 2 key seller, because, as he said, quickbuyers for 2 keys have more success than sellers for 3 keys. My suggestion is just fixing the low end of the current price range to correspond with current market situation.
yes, but when i browse the first 10 pages on OP i fail to find a single offer for 2keys, nor sold ones. Just a 5 month old trade for 6ref. So i stay neutral for now.
Check my comment below, there's something to make you change your opinion ;)
I have had three offers between 2 and 2.5 keys, was going to submit my own trade as evidence, but someone beat me to it.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7740676 - that guy sold 3 more pairs of mantreads for 2 keys each (edit: actually sold last one for 7 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7746414 - 2 keys 1 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7734695 - 2 keys 1 ref