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Some notes before I get into all this. I disregarded trades of people asking for more than 11 keys, since that is the current price. The trades I have listed were all open at the time of me putting this together.
My conclusion is at the bottom.
Ma proof:
SELLERS
< 10 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7651738 - 7 keys, open for 5 days - No longer in BP
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7690126 - 8 keys, open for 4 days - No longer in BP
~ 10 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7776882 - posted 1 hour ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7777222 - posted 1 hour ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7772645 - asking 9 - 10
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7762413 - posted 20 hours ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7771391 - posted 7 hours ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7762673 - posted 19 hours ago
~ 11 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7738307 - posted 1 day ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7742628 - posted 1 day ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7030536 - posted 3 weeks ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7722786 - posted 2 days ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7721842 - posted 2 days ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7575670 - posted 1 week ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7674575 - posted 4 days ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7683754 - posted 4 days ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7765815 - posted 16 hours ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7713469 - posted 3 days ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7709084 - posted 3 days ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7765024 - posted 17 hours ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7770002 - posted 10 hours ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7662721 - posted 5 days ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7775093 - posted 4 hours ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7612868 - posted 6 days ago
Asking for offers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7630099 - CO; 9 keys. Been open for 6 days.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7754839 - rejected 9 keys. Opened 1 day ago.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7733491 - offered 9 keys. Opened 2 days ago.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6078730 - co: Bills + 12 keys, but: http://puu.sh/1LGTO
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7331516 - co: 12 keys, but can't find that on the trade
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7646708 - no hits, opened 5 days ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7682799 - one offer, opened 4 days ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5237019 - co is a month old, new offers are around 10 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7645416 - no hits, opened 5 days ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6977564 - last offer, 2 weeks ago. opened 3 weeks ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7739711 - no hits, opened 1 day ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6993062 - no hits, opened 3 weeks ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7223472 - no hits, opened 2 weeks ago
BUYERS
I only looked at trades with just the Huntsman in the want section.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6222657 - few people saying they would sell for less than 10 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7761446 - crate 40 and 3 keys ~ 10 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7758040 - 10 keys offered
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7575545 - offered 10 keys
MORE PROOF
From Bazaar.tf
http://bazaar.tf/trade/89013 - opened 2 weeks ago, only offer 9 keys
http://bazaar.tf/trade/94070 - opened 1 week ago, co is crap
http://bazaar.tf/trade/81358 - opened 3 weeks ago, asking backpack.tf prices, no bites
http://bazaar.tf/trade/96007 - opened 1 week ago, no bites
http://bazaar.tf/trade/104327 - opened 2 days ago, asking 11 keys, 2 ref. No bites.
http://bazaar.tf/trade/104420 - opened 2 days, no bites
http://bazaar.tf/trade/99237 - opened 1 week ago, 1:1 with sapper (11-12 keys) no bites
http://bazaar.tf/trade/99388 - opened 1 week ago, no bites
http://bazaar.tf/trade/106417 - opened 4 hours ago asking 11 keys
http://bazaar.tf/trade/99216 - opened 1 week ago, based on suggest price of buds, 2 buds - 27 keys (top of range) *2 divided by 5 huntsman equals 10.8 keys. Not bites
http://bazaar.tf/trade/93960 - opened 1 week ago, had offers around 10 to 12 keys.
MORE PROOF
From TF2 TradePost:
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8975523 - sold for 10 keys
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8975816 - sold for 10 keys
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8975759 - asking 10 keys + craft hat, not sold (opened and closed 3 other trades of the same thing)
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8973245 - asking 11 keys, not sold
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8975191 - asking 11 keys, not sold
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8975732 - asking 11 keys, has Headshots on it, not sold
MORE PROOF
From Backpack.tf
Screen shot of the classifieds on backpack.tf http://puu.sh/1LHWA
The list went on, but people are asking 10 keys here too.
Some opened as far back as 5 days ago.
Conclusion:
I was originally going to suggest 10 - 11 keys, but after seeing how my unsold trades there were at 11 keys, and offers of people asking 10 keys to buyers, that 10 keys might be more accurate.
Suggested price: 10 keys.
Thanks.
Those less than 10 keys got sold quite a while ago, probably why they haven't been bumped.
They have been bumped, they were with in the first 5 pages. But I did just check their Backpacks, and they don't have them. So they sold I guess.
I made a note of that, since I can still edit the notes :)
It's all about finding the right buyer.
I sold both mine for 12 keys each.
I would say it is better to have a 10-11 key range rather than just a flat 10 keys.
Did you mean bought both of mine, or sold? I figured sold.
I was originally thinking that would be good suggestion, but after doing the search and seeing how many there are unsold for 11 keys, I made the decision that 11 keys doesn't sell too much.
Most important word decided to not show up. lol. I sold them for 12 keys.
People buy them in that range because they have the vain hope that they will go back up. I face desked when the festives came out and sold ASAP.
Another thing. Some people still use the spreadsheet as a price guide. I personally abandoned it, but it has them listed @ 12-14 keys. So some sellers that sell in game can get luckey and snag a good deal. Makes me sad they are going down but I have to upvote this.
:P
That being said about the spreadsheet, there are always outliers in the sale of anything, people buying buds at 28 keys, keys at 3.55 to 3.66. Granted spreadsheet might have more accurate values for those. But those are outliers, as I said, I don't feel that those should be taken into consideration.
How long ago did you sell them for 12 keys? Can I get a screen shot of trade from your inventory history?
How does one get your inventory history? I r teh nubs.
haha, the way I know how to do (there may be a better way) is, in steam, going to your inventory, and above the stuff is a little link that says inventory history.
The link is in the top right section - http://puu.sh/1LIej
This first one paid me $2 on paypal because he didnt have the other key.
Essentially I got 12.
http://gyazo.com/e89a34ae1567f3056fc6084fdc5334c1
This next one I did get 12 pure.
http://gyazo.com/6033be9e320abbb3b889affd8a3df00c
Cool, thanks for the counter proof. :) I guess what there is to be said about it is that it could be considered lucky. I'm glad you got them for what they did. :)
Thanks mate :)
I got mine for 10 keys almost two weeks ago. So around the time the 11-12 vote was happening.
That said, I got an offer of 13 keys for it from some guy a few days ago. His keys weren't tradable though and he ended up finding a better deal for it, but he was willing to pay 13 for it.
A 10-11 range would be more fitting, imo.
Can't argue with this evidence, the existence of a rarer and more obnoxious festive variant and the continuation of crate 40 have gutted these. I feel bad for those who bought this when it was 21 keys :P.
Me too. :P