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Also, due to rarity of unusual cosa nostras I did some research on other effects.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6944223 eerie fire which is arguably lower than vivid has 4 pure c/o
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7667246 purple energy which is higher than vivid has rejected 4 pure offer
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6610688 really good offers for cauldron cosa
So that's why I think that ~3.5 would be fair for this high tier spy hat.
Well maybe you could figure out some previous sales of this hat? I. e. for what did you bought it for and the user before you?
It's hard to find closed trades :< I got it as sweet to my other unusual but I'll try to find some vivid cosa on outpost, the bad thing is only 5 exist ^^
Yeah many old effects have risen in price.^^ Same thing here as on your other suggestion, I will stay neutral. :)