OFFERS

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7313058 - Front Runner offered (2.88-3 ref)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3449356 - 1 key, several offers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7795932 - 3.33 offered (asking price is 1 key)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7645875 - 3.66 ref offered

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6633598 - G. Bolgan (1-1.5 keys) offered and rejected

SUCCESSFUL TRADES

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6667730 - 1 key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7798093 - 1 key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7784342 - 1 key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7723806 - V. Backbiter's Billycock (1 key) .11 ref

UNSOLD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7782186 - 2 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6920961 - 2 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7782186 - 3 ref (he lists it as this, but refuses a 3 ref offer)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7832413 - 3.33 ref (2 hours old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7818573 - 1 key (though 13 hours old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7405556 - 1 key (2 weeks old!!!)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7106368 - 1 key 2 rec (2+ weeks old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7827706 - 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7591688 - 4.22 ref (he even references the dated backpack.tf price)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6880239 - 1 key 1 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7773191 - 1 key 1 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7592179 - 1 key 1 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7743601 - 1 key 1 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7794703 - 1 key 1.33 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7345031 - 1 key offered, counteroffer of 1 key 1 ref (2 weeks old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7238927 - 1.5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7556236 - 4 ref offered, counteroffer of 5 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7586700 - 1 key 1 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7591394 - 1 key 1.66 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7785011 - 1.5 keys

Lowest sold value - 1 key

Highest sold value - about 1 key .11 ref

Lowest offer - 2.88-3 ref

Highest offer - 3.66 ref

Highest unsold value (below 1 key) - 3 ref

It's pretty clear that the item's minimum has stayed at one key, but the maximum has lowered significantly. The highest offer for The Marxman I could find was at 3.66 ref (17 hours ago, so it's fresh) with a variation or two within the range I'm proposing.