Selling at 1 key 1 ref (4.33):

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7829272

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7818282

Sold for 1 key 1 ref (4.33):

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7630252

Selling for 1 key + 2 ref (5.33 ref):

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7829310

Selling for 5 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7726044 (sold 3)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7842241

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7756600

Sold for 5 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4771182

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7599695

Sold for 5.22 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7267246

Unsold for 2 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7779788

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7031238

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7542453

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7691501

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6782436

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7142989

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7609811

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7350922

Sold for 2 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6603882 (1 month ago)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7506395

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7578341

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7705047

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7507856

Being offered 1 key 1 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7599695

Being offered 4.66 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7123390 (4 ref + toss proof towel, bought it for 4.66 ref + towel)

Being offered 1.5 keys (5 ref):

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6705871

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7142989

A complicating situation we have here, I'd say.

With so many unsold at 2 keys, a range of 4.33-5 ref would be possible seeing that people are offering at a max of 5 ref (even though there are a few who mananged to sell it at that price, most probably due to buyers not knowing the price of a genuine anger or similar to the case of Team Captain where some ppl are willing to buy it at 2 keys).