Painted variants included After Eight, The Color of a Gentlemann's Business Pants and Team Spirit, all asking only for the 2 keys I had requested. Some of the people offering their hats expressed that they were having difficulty selling their hats. There are only three pages of results of people looking to buy the hat on tf2op, indicating low demand. Many of these appear to be resellers or questionably active trades, also indicating low demand. Asking prices range between 1.1 keys and 2 keys, but most stay around 1.4-1.6 keys.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7604661 - 1.5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7741063 - 1.6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5532885 - 1.1 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5267558 - 1.4 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6716570 - 1.6 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6713299 - 2 keys if painted

More evidence to come...

On the other side (those selling hats), prices are very high, generally between 3-4 keys. This may be related to the 2.5 keys - 3 keys appraisal at http://tf2spreadsheet.blogspot.com/. There are 9 pages, indicating a large supply, and there doesn't seem to be a lot of action going on in the trades.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7766299 - 3 days old, highest offer on lab coat version is 2 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7846424 - no action on 2.4 keys gold hat

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7381484 - highest offer in 2 weeks was Dashin' Hashshashin (2 - 2.5 keys according to this site)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7653621 - week old trade, no action on TS version for 4 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7436032 - 2 week old trade, no action on TS version for 3.9 keys

There are also plenty of really old trades asking for 3 to 4 keys.