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As I've said before, for unusuals, I won't vote if I own one. But what caused the huge change in price?
I have no idea. All I know is that the prices are rising. I don't think we can pin it on any one factor.
The links show respectively:
Your trade with a ~2,1 bud B/O;
A trade with 2,5 B/O from the previous owner of your hat (probably sold for less);
A trade with highest C/O of a PE Festivizer (~1,7 buds);
A sold one for Steaming Hallmark + 0,3 buds (~1,9 buds).
The hat on the last trade used to be mine and i had a hard time getting offers of around 2 buds (had it for more than 2 months).
Here are my trades from that time to show the offers i got: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5090311[/url]
Downvote for me, the present price is still good.
My trade for 2.1 B/O, which closed for a clean Max's, a key, and 3.00 ref
Hat with 2.5 B/O, bought for 2 buds: [{{PA}} Pilltacular: How much did you buy the Smoking Hallmark for?
Vegeta: I got a max for 1.8 and bought the hat
{{PA}} Pilltacular: Okay, so that's 2 buds.
Vegeta: Yeah. I guess so.]
The third trade's owner did not close the trade, the hat was bought for ~$80 Paypal (2.4 buds), according to the next owner in line.
[TheHungarianHurricane: I bought it in a big group for like 160$ a bought bubbling nappers bubbling drills and that.So it was a good deal but i am not sure on the exact price.] Bubbling Napper's is $~38, Bubbling Drill Hat is $~42, leaving the Hustler's at a straight $80, which is about 2.4 buds.
Steaming Hallmark is ~1.7-1.8 buds, 8 keys is a bit under 0.3 buds. That rounds the price to a nice 2 buds.
As you said, all of them went for around 2~2,1 buds but the one that you said that was bought via paypal.
The one bought via paypal was sold on a bulk deal and by assuming the other 2 hats went for the backpack.tf price, you got the price on the hallmark.
For me the fair thing to do would be assume the backpack.tf price for all of them and then divide equally the rest between them all. That would give:
Napper => 38 + 6 = 44; Drill => 42 + 6 = 48; Hallmark => 62 + 6 = 68.
These values would add to $160. And would grant the Hallmark the amount of ~2buds.
So, i still think the current price is fine. It was recently changed and i don't think it needs an update.