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Soooooo, where's 14 keys coming from?
I forgot to mention that I had two people add me and offer 14 keys, although the description says 15 keys.
But that's the thing, 14 key offers weren't accept on your trade or this other guys trade and 15 is within the current price range.
I'm not seeing the proof that you can't sell for 18 or that you can buy for 14.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7686912
B/O of 16 keys.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7650090
C/O of 12 keys+ref, not getting any offers.
B/O that sits within the current market price range and shows us nothing.... ok.
C/O of 12key + ref is listed as rejected for being way too low by owner of trade.
Once again, I'm not seeing any proof of your suggestion.
He had a b/o below the current high end for 1 week and got only a 13 keys offer.~
And the other one got no better offer than 12 keys + 1 ref for 1 week.
And the sellers rejected said offers. You can't ignore their opinions.
It has to be a SALE.
Most sales on such hats are quicksales with 10-12 keys. And the other sales are hard to follow. And btw he posted his SALE.
Yeah they rejected these two low offers that's why they should be the low end. The sale of him is the high end. Any problems?
1. Rejected offers does not a low end make. If I offer 1 key for the hat and it gets rejected, does that mean the hat is suddenly worth from 1 to 18 keys? No. If I'm a seller and I ask a minimum of 1 bud for it and that's rejected, does that make the high end 1 bud? No. It has to SELL at the low end just like it has to SELL at the high end.
2. His sold in 2 days for 15. I consider that an unusual quicksell.
3. His trade is within current range and only 1 point. 1 point does not make a range so how you determined that is the high end is beyond me.
1. So you are telling me, if I spam 1 key offers that get rejected, I can single handily change the price? Low ball offers are often just below the actual market price since they can guarantee a profit that way. It's not proof and there's no logical way to reason that it is without some crazy circumstantial evidence which I don't see here.
2. So his relatively quicksell for 15 keys shouldn't be in the market price? Is the price now too low? (I'm confused).
3. Yes he traded it quickly for a low end of the current range price. I know, that's what I said. You don't always have to have a B/O at or above maximum price. You can keep it lower if you are trying to sell faster. Hence I'll say again, B/O are not usable to reflect market price. Every "indicator for a high price" listed so far has either been entirely illogical or depends on a huge amount of circumstantial evidence that isn't present.
EDIT: For some reason, I can't post below him, but this is a response to Pomf's post below.
Response to Mc CoolName
1. A low end of a PRICE is what the lowest SALE went for. You are speculating what the low end is and (as you know) we don't use speculation here and no amount of experience will change that fact. Bottom line is you are completely ignoring the seller's opinion here. If no ones sells for 14 keys no matter how many offers of 14 they receive, then it stands to reason that NO ONE SELLS FOR 14 KEYS.
2. I've seen cancer unusuals take weeks and sometimes months to sell as well. 2 days is not a long time for a hat sale in general, let alone enough wait time to suggest it is the absolute high end. There's nothing about his trade to show it's the high end.
3. As I said, incredibly circumstantial evidence is required and AT BEST, all this tells you is that the price range could vary up to 16. The B/O at 16 is a trade only 1 week old and we have no way of telling if he has recently reduced the buyout or not. So how is this concrete evidence?
1. I know. The low end should be offers they get rather easily. In this case that would be ~13 keys.
2. I know. I just wanted to say that most sales are quicksales on such hats and shouldn't be used as a market price (maybe as low end in some cases).
3. He traded it for the low end of the current range and others don't get offer IN the high range and 1 have even a b/o below the high value of the current range. All indicicators for a high price. And I agree that his range is too small. It should be 13-15 keys instead but that's not a big deal.
1. The low end is usually the highest offer made over and over and over again. (it involves a subjective touch, because when you look at a trade, you have to be able to realize whats a legit offer and whats a lowball--A sense you get from experience).
2. Cancer unusuals sell differently then regular unusuals. I've had unusuals ranging from 13 keys up to 12~ buds, the 12 bud unusual took over a month to sell, and the 13 key unusual took a couple of days.
3. B/o's don't really mean much, but if there is an unsold b/o of 1.5 buds then there is no reason for the high end to be any higher since it can be easily bought for that b/o (or less). [now, this doesn't really count if the trade is brand new.]
The high end is usually somewhere between the highest offer and the b/o depending on the age of the trade. If a trade has been up for a month, then odds are the highest offer should be the high end, maybe a drop higher if its been rejected.
Link 2 got an amazing offer: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7833433Bubbling mullet (~20 keys? + ~3 keys in sweets).
He traded it already for a peace pith helmet. Not longer valid.
And thus, the counter proof appears.
Told ya, that such speculation was jumping the gun.
EDIT: Still value because it sold for a hat worth 24 to 31 keys.
Two days is not a long time imo.^^
Response to McCoolName
I think it makes more sense to start a new conversation thread, so I'll go ahead and do that.
1. A low end of a PRICE is what the lowest SALE went for. You are speculating what the low end is and (as you know) we don't use speculation here (especially when you are speculating using barely 3 trades) and no amount of experience will change that fact. Bottom line is you are completely ignoring the seller's opinion here. If no ones sells for 14 keys no matter how many offers of 14 they receive, then it stands to reason that NO ONE SELLS FOR 14 KEYS. Until ones sells for 14 keys, no number of rejected offers at this price will mean anything other than 14 keys is definitely not in the current price range.
2. I've seen cancer unusuals take weeks and sometimes months to sell as well. 2 days is not a long time for a hat sale in general, let alone enough wait time to suggest it is the absolute high end. There's nothing about his trade to show it's the high end.
3. As I said, incredibly circumstantial evidence is required and AT BEST, all this tells you is that the price range could vary up to 16. The B/O at 16 is a trade only 1 week old and we have no way of telling if he has recently reduced the buyout or not as that information is not recorded anywhere. So how is this concrete evidence?
1. I will not comment on that one and save us some time.
2. Cancer unusuals shouldn't take any longer that ~3 weeks maximum to sell because many people can afford them. Maybe there are exceptions or very patient sellers.
3. That trader is a friend of mine, I'm pretty sure his buyout was 16 keys for the whole week. When I catch him the next time, I'll ask him.
I almost forgot that link 2 is up for more than 1 month and only got a 14 keys offer.~
EDIT: The "counter-proof" is not longer valid because he got something else within a few hours. Truly an outlier from a noob unusual trader imo.
1. There's nothing more to say there. You can't use low buyer offers (with no sales) as proof of a lower price just like you can't use high sellers (with no offers) as proof of a higher price. It's not proof. Period.
2. So once again, 2 days is a pretty short to normal time and definitely not representative of waiting a long time for a trade.
3. Please do, it'd be really helpful in determining the value of his trade. But I will still point out that a B/O of 16 on a week old trade does not justify a 14-15 price range.
Lastly, that something else (if it's this Pith Helmet) is worth 24 to 31 keys so I'm pretty sure it still stands... (unless you are saying 2 offers more than the current range isn't usable as proof, but 2 offers less than the current range is)