OFFERS

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7867335 - 3 ref (accepted, though trade incomplete)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7676952 - 3 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7886785 - 1 key asking price

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6771803 - 1 key asking price

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7892271 - 1 key asking price

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7109662 - 1 key asking price

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7891995 - 1 key asking price

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6892064 - 1 key

SUCCESSFUL TRADES

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7849746 - 1 key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6752160 - 2 keys (1 week old)

UNSOLD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6617968 - 2 ref (1 month old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6886918 - 2 ref (1 month old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7781746 - 2.33 ref (4 days old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6522227 - 4 ref (2 offers of 1 key ignored, 1 month old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7677764 - 1 key 1 ref (1 week old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7846863 - 1 key 1 ref (1 day old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7115457 - 1.5 keys (3 weeks old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7129869 - 1.5 keys (3 weeks old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7621987 - 1.5 keys (1 week old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7022244 - 1 key 2 ref (4 weeks old)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7609811 - 1 key 2 ref (1 week old)

Unsold minimum barrier - 2.33 ref

Offer minimum barrier - 3 ref

Successful Trade minimum barrier - 1 key

Successful Trade maximum barrier - 2 keys

Offer maximum barrier - 1 key

Unsold maximum barrier - 4 ref

After going through all of outpost, I only found 2 successful trades. The item's minimum seems to have moved down somewhat, though I can't provide solid proof of a trade (one of the offers is only a few minutes passed, it could be a trade by the time I post this). Given that 1/5 of the current offers are 3 ref, I believe the new minimum should be set here.

As for the maximum, the Bolgan clearly shouldn't be listed at 1.5 keys anymore. There are several ancient trades in that range that have gone completely untouched. One of the successful trades found was 1 key, and many of the seller's starting asking prices are 1 key. This leaves me to believe that the max should be set at a key.

The 2 key successful trade appears to be a statistical anomaly, as it's out of the boundaries set by every other piece of data. Someone had a lucky day.