Suggestion: The Head Warmer at 2.44–2.88 ref

Price Suggestion

The Head Warmer

Submitted Mon, 14 Jan 13 20:09:41 +0000 by ★ possimpible

73%

1 key

2.44–2.88 ref

~1.78 ref

73 votes up

27 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was accepted Wed, 16 Jan 13 02:52:31 +0000 by neverclever.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

First of all, lets take a look at previous accepted suggestion (first link). Previous value of this hat was 3ref and it was supposed to go down, somewhere to 2.66 - 3ref value of the key back then. We of course know what happened with the market, keys continued to rise in value, now worth 3.22 - 3.44 and took this hat with it because for some very bad reason, value of this hat was tied to the key value.(Also one of the reason why I think using keys as currency should be disabled for things under 3keys, but that's probably just me - because stuff like this can happen). Finding a good price for this hat is hard, just like in previous suggestion, finding actual proof of sellings is very hard.

UNSOLD

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7885118[/url] 3ref, day old

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7794396[/url] key, 4 days

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7363347[/url] key, 2 weeks old

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7689886[/url] key, week old

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7848237[/url] key/3.11, day

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7594711[/url] key+rec, week

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7695224[/url] key, week

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7656003[/url] key, week

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7691831[/url] key, week

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7623502[/url] key, week

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7791622[/url] 3ref, 4 days

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7763368[/url] key, 5 days

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7782012[/url] 3.33, 4 days

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7787137[/url] key, 4 days

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7832731[/url] key, 2 days

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7783152[/url] key, 4 days

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7763510[/url] key, 5 days

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7764986[/url] key, 5 days

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7608207[/url] key, week

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7885118[/url] 3ref, day

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7706898[/url] 3ref, week

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7729210[/url] key, week

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7836188[/url] lime paint, key, 2 days

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7856350[/url] key, day

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7892310[/url] 2ref, day

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7874178[/url] 2,44, day

At this point, I stopped to take track of unsold 3ref / 1 key prices although there are much more of them. Even from here it's perfectly clear, that this hat is just not selling for that price.

SOLD

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7379605[/url] Sold for 1.66, 3 ref (probably)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7795650[/url] 3ref

[url]http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8998883[/url] 2.66ref

OFFERS

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6288555[/url] 2,44 best offer - not taken

Sales at higher offers like 3 ref are very very unusual and mostly luck for seller. They can happen, but in the ocean of unsold trades are worthless indicator.

some of these trades havent been bumped forever, like the 2 ref one. hasnt been bumped since it was posted.

but i thank you for the lime one

I already got my lime, and that one got's added already, you gotta be fast!

http://puu.sh/1NLUB

didnt have to be fast lol

Hehe good work. ;)

OMG,how many dudes that sell for less than a key,i'm gonna be rich $_$

I would prefer a conservative bump down to 2.66-3 (what it was before).

You just included 3 sales which are in the 2.66-3 ref range. The 2 which are below 2.66 haven't been bumped constantly and are on the end of outpost or even not visible the whole time (>20 pages).~

They are just not selling even for 3 ref, that's why I did 2.88. Every sale for 3ref it's just unusual luck (unrelated example, i sold my all-father yesterday for 4 keys, but even i don't think its worth that much. that's why I didn't include those lucky sales in range just like I wouldn't include 4keys in range for All-father.)

Can we see the Head Warmers that have sold for more than 3 ref? You can't dismiss trades that aren't in your suggested range as "worthless indicators", as your wording makes it sound like there are quite a few completed trades that have sold for more than 3 ref, but that's just the overanalyzing-ness taking over. :S

to be honest, i bought one for 1.44 few weeks ago

i swear i did

Outpost is Ded

unsold 1 key , sold 3 ref

Suggest 2.44 ? :/

Already explained that one. The ratio of sold ones for price even 3 ref is just ridiculous. There are tons out there unsold for 1key / 3ref so even including that in range would be pointless. Every sale for that price is just big luck for seller.