Definitely dropping. Can't get more proof at the moment, so I'll be conservative and leave 2.33 in the range. Lots of people selling at 2 - 2.33, and not many sales. Definitely not 1 key.

Classifieds

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/959/11/0 - Several selling at 2 ref

Unsold for 1 key/3.33

http://bazaar.tf/trade/10586 - Unsold for 1 key

http://bazaar.tf/trade/110324 - Unsold for 1 key

http://bazaar.tf/trade/92104 - Unsold for 1 key

Unsold for 2.66

http://bazaar.tf/trade/110025 - Unsold for 2.66

http://bazaar.tf/trade/107077 - Unsold for 2.66

Selling for 2.33

http://bazaar.tf/trade/111447 - Selling for 2.33

http://bazaar.tf/trade/109922 - Selling for 2.33

http://bazaar.tf/trade/103097 - Selling for 2.33

Selling for 2 ref

http://bazaar.tf/trade/110770 - Selling for 2 ref

Would have liked to have provided more proof, but this (in my opinion) is definitely enough to warrant a price change. 2.33 is unsold, some sellers are willing to take 2 ref.