This one is a little bit tricky, but I try my best.

I talked to one of the previous owners (god) to figure his two deals out.

1st deal: He sold his secret stash (~18) for the hoodie + 2.5 buds. He said it was low but he liked the hoodie. So no unusual overpay here. 18 - 2.5 = 15.5.~

I linked his outpost page here because I forget to ask him for screenshots, I will provide them maybe later. The Stash went to Bob6256 and the hoodie + the two buds went from Bob6256 to God. It's hard to find 0.5 buds so I simply believe him here.

2nd deal: He traded it with a burning cope (~2.4) for a scorching bubble pipe (~17.3 pure) + sf flamethrower (0.6). 17.3 + 0.6 - 2.4 = 15.5 again.~ He said it was a good deal, an indicator for the high end.

The bubblepipe and the sf flame thrower went from [GR2R]Hatterboot to god. He received the hoodie+ the coupe.

3rd deal: The new owner traded it for a scorching juju (~10.5) but he was "drooling" for this hat so clearly an outlier.

So 2 deals at the new high end of 15.5. And the low end? Yes the low end. These trades are all so short open, no one could really receive offers. Also it's 1 on the market for the most time. I think a range should be at least 10% of the hat's value so a 15 buds hat should have a 1.5 buds range.