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Link 1: had a b/o of 20, guy (beauty^) paid 19 (check the history and goomba's BP) [beauty^ then proceeded to sell this + a g. fetti noir (13-18) for a steaming spartan (1.1-1.5) if that is of interest, check his trade history [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/198279[/url]]
Link 2: Same guy as link 1 except here is b/o is 19. Was offered a bubbling geisha, and told the offerer to add keys (17keys, old price).
Link 3: b/o of 1.5-2 buds. c/o of 18.5 keys as of a week ago, guy offering still has that amount in his bp, so I assume this is still valid. Also got O. planet outdoors man (19-24), and a Smoking industrial festivizer(23-25)
Links 4 and 5: 1hour and 1day old respectively, no offers as of yet. (for reference)
I don't see anyone accepting 16 keys which is why I bumped it up to 18, which, given the geisha offer, seems around the minimum accepted. The low B/Os also trouble me, but given that they were both from the same guy, and he sold the hat within five hours of having the trade up, it reaks of a slight quicksale. Given the offers from link 3 I'm inclined to put the high end at 22. Also this puts it on par with p. fetti (not that I'm trying to price unusuals relatively by effect), although surprisingly under bubbling and o. planets, and frankly, I don't understand how they are so high.
and then for some reason beauty^ gave the steaming spartan back to Marnix for the smoking prancer's...
Yep, he's got the noir back too. Trade back it seems. Marnix has the spartan back up for trade but beauty^ doesn't. Regret perhaps on beauty^'s part? /speculation
Aaaaand now beauty^ has the steaming spartan back, marnix has the noir, and another unusual from beauty^, and someone named volpiii bought the prancer and apparently sold it immediately to someone who isn't on outpost. honestly I give up trying to track this one...
Update Link 5 has an offer of 20 keys + possible sweets which the owner claimed is too low. Still within the proposed range though.