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Oh and this link should have been there: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7632894
Steam Beta Market has its own section of prices, this part of suggestions should be left to in-game payments such as metal/key/buds/etc.
Link 2 has someone buying for 3 keys 3 days ago, but seller was too late.
Link 3 has an offer of 7.33 ref which is roughly 2 keys and 2 rec.
I would've thought these would be selling closer to 2.5 keys on the steam market if people could flip them for 3 keys.
i would think a flat 2.5 keys would be better since people are quickbuyers that will buy as much as they can get there hands on for 2 keys to resell for more
Steam market spreadsheet is based off the selling price of keys on the Steam market which is a little over $2. You could have just as easily made the price more by using PayPal key price which is $1.35 or made the price lower by using Mann. Co. Store prices of $2.49. Conversions from real life money to metal should not fully dictate a price as backpack.tf reflects prices in metal to show in game value.
Now this is only anecdotal evidence but I've sold two of these at 3 keys a piece in the last week and it wasn't much trouble, maybe I'm lucky although they certainly didn't instantly sell at that price.
Well I'm going to double down on this suggestion. My links show 5 individuals who would have taken less than 2.5 keys. I would've made it a flat 2.5 if it was not for a) the steam market and b) the difficulty I had finding offers at or above 2.5 keys on numerous 3 key seller trades. Anyone is welcome to provide counter links, but I think the difference in steam market prices of this and the festive scattergun would make you think twice that they had the same price range.
A couple more links to please the proof lovers.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7612943 (offer to sell for 2 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7909226 (user "Datcom" from link 4 of my suggestion makes a offer to a 2 key 1 ref buyer)
Sorry i finally was able to removed my head from my desk..... Let me just say no...
I had very much trouble finding one for 2 keys, ended up trading a kringle for it
Bought 3 at 2 keys, sold all for 3 keys, easily, all in the last week. Easy downvote. Don't have a pic of my trade or evidence that someone actually bought them (unless you go hunting in my history). But here's my closed trade: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7912906
It was impossible to find these at 2 keys last time I searched so I will vote NO
The comments are a bit disheartening but I'll still stick with this suggestion.
2 key sellers -
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7925884
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7972289
2.5 key and 2 keys 2 ref sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7964279
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7942585
Unlucky 3 key sellers?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7697685
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6783731
link 1 offer of 2 keys 1 ref
there was the guy at multiple links offering the upgrade to premium gift for the festive medigun, I'd say 2-3 keys would be better since people still sell at 3 keys/
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7951032
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7780800
I think that's enough links for today.