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DISCLAIMER: I have 6 of these
My first price suggestion (after plenty of lurking), seeing as I already did the research I might as well share it. I chose 3.5 keys as the low level because all trades at 3 keys are being snatched up very fast. I've personally sold a number of headshots at 4 keys in recent weeks.
SOLD/WILLING BUYERS:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3049234 1.5 keys (Sold)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4914363 2 keys + 0.66 ref (so many willing buyers, poster unresponsive for months)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5084191 3 keys (lots of willing buyers)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7899946 3 keys (lots of willing buyers)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7911326 3 keys (SOLD)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5754150 3 keys (SOLD)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6090994 3 keys (SOLD)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7981380 3 keys (SOLD)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7059843 3 keys (SOLD)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7894850 3 keys (SOLD)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7640812 3 keys (All sold)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6432022 3 keys (All sold)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7997590 3 keys (All sold)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8053715 3 keys (All sold)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5160137 3 keys + 1 ref (0 in stock)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7915559 3.5 keys (Sold)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8006789 3.5 keys (Sold)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/4777064 4 keys (1 in stock, 13 sold (at least some at 3 keys))
STILL NEW:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8087727 (3 keys)
UNSOLD:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8057834 4 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8043005 4 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8082876 4 keys (sold one + 6 keys for Black Bills)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7946430 4 keys (3 key offer ignored)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7784889 4 keys (3 key offer ignored)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8055741 4 keys (3 key offer declined)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7816097 4 keys (3 keys declined, 3 + clean fez hidden)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5113872 5 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5683509 5 keys (My trade)
QUICKBUYERS
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7731488 3 keys (a few adds in the last week)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8090785 3 keys (no offers yet)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7999492 3 keys (1 add 2 days ago, but still has keys)
OTHER SOURCES
Steam market average (24 hours): 7.71 USD (8 sold) ~5.61 keys (According to this site)
TF2TP - loads sold at 3 keys
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9037640 3 keys (Unsold but fairly new)
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9040638 3 keys (Unsold but fairly new)
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9030188 3.5 keys (Sold)
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9022797 3.5 keys (Sold)
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9018553 3 keys + 2 ref (Sold)
TF2WH
34,380c (approx 3.25 keys) - 0 in stock
BACKPACK.TF - 0 in classifieds
The sold for 4 keys is 3 months old, and he obviously raised his price. All the "added's" are most likely not for 4 keys.
The 4 Keys is mine, first time my trade has been used as proof, it's kinda weird feeling haha. And to answer yes I did raise my price about 5 days ago, after I saw everyone else raising there's and ones for 3 keys going like crazy, so I figured raise it and see how it works out. I sold one for 4 keys so far, so the range might be a bit high right now but that seems to be where its heading over time at least. I do agree that 2.5 is far too low right now and the ones that go at that price are quicksells. Also added in a note to clarify the number sold thing.
1- tf2wh 34K = 3 keys and in buy way less than 3 .
2- just ignore high-low balls and see lot of proof sold for 3 flat.
3- 2.5 keys maybe not valid but 4 is too high , i recommending you to close this and submit new price suggest with 3 keys flat.
Downvote due to bad range.
You showed lots of proof that it's being sold for 3 keys.
Maybe you should change it to 3 - 4 keys? Or better yet 3 - 3.5
I guess my point with the low range was that for trades at 3 keys:
The poster gets tonnes of "I'll buy it"
There is currently only one available (new trade, poster is afk)
Quickbuyers are starting to offer this price
If i get turned down/prompted by the mods I can always relist at 3-4 keys
The proof is good but there are way too many sales happening at 3 keys. I think the range 3-4 keys is better.
Wrong range
Seeing proofs, there must be a low range at 3 keys
Too many sales at 3 to warrant a 3.5 low
A lot of unsold 4 keys...
Your showing lots sold for 3 keys, I reckon 3-3.5 is good or maybe even 3 flat!
3-3.5 would probably be the best...
lol the last guys comment in your trade http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5683509
Upvote. I unboxed 2 on Friday. Sold one for 4 keys and another for Toothkickers and a Merc Muffler (flipped those for 5 keys).
I Gave You dem crates lol
3-3.5 keys or 3 keys flat would be better
3-3.5 keys