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Rarity:
in the wild: 2 (One is owned by JWBkiller and is not for sale.)
for sale on OP: 0
http://backpack.tf/unusuals/538/Killer_Exclusive
Comps:
-Scorching was recently updated to 48-58 buds. Beams is usually higher, but the beams KE hasn't gotten the same quality offers. However, it isn't on the market nearly as much since there is effectively only one of them and he only puts it up every couple months.
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/50f4edf3ba2536b753000003
-Beams Team Captain has recently sold for 49 & 50. Generally the KE lags behind the TC in most cases. For example, Burning TC is about 110, the KE is about 95
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/50fd7d3aba25364375000001#50fd9a9fba2536e211000000_row
Trades:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3502430 (Opened 3 months ago)
-b/o 60 buds or $1800
-Cloudy Moon Tyrants + Cloudy Moon Pyromancer's Mask + Stormy Brown Bomber (21+10+4= 36)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/2767449 (opened 5 months ago)
-b/o 66.5 or $2000
-$1800 (looks fake imo)
-Moon Tyrants + Moon Reggae (~38)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/1858966 (7 months ago)
-moon ballcap + moon marauder + steam tyrolean + peace brigade (~30)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/1706138 (8 months ago)
- 40 buds declined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/1237844 (9 months ago)
-b/o 35
-20
-21
-20+burning milkman (~30) (Deco)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/1076434 (9 months ago)
-25 buds plus hearts milkman plus green energy milkman (~33 now. back then this was much more)
NEW EVIDENCE!
Jester: hey man, can i ask you a question?
Yu-Gi-Oh: sure mate
Jester: what did you sell your beams KE for?
Jester: OR, what do you think it's worth now if you don't want to tell me the sales price.
Jester: i understand all the privacy issues in these expensive hats
Yu-Gi-Oh: i have nothing to hide mate, i sold it for 20 buds + burning milkman + burning whoopee cap
Yu-Gi-Oh: i bought it for 30 buds
Jester: awesome man thanks. your a good guy.
Yu-Gi-Oh: no probz mate
So it sold last about 9 months ago for about 35 and the subsequent high offer is 40 that was declined. Multiple 35+ offers indicate 35-40 is too low for the seller to part with it.
As with the comps, if you believe in the comp between the TC and the KE, if the beams TC is 50 then this should be worth about 42 based on the difference between burning TC and KE.
Yeah I overlooked the whoopie cap. :/
I found only one offer~40 buds(http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/1706138 (8 months ago))Where did you get the price 45 buds? I do not see any connection with the Sunbeams Team Captain - it's a different hat and no offers or sold ~45 buds. Offer ~40 buds (8 months ago). I'm against it
36, 38, & 40 have been straight refused. it would be unfair to the seller to set the price at like 35-40 based on the refused offers. since he has declined 40, 40-45 is reasonable imo.
Just b/c you don't believe in comps doesn't mean that others don't. Comps and rarity is what the big dogs look at when setting the value for an item. they say, "well this sells for this, so this should be able to sell for this".
i am just providing all the various forms of evidence i can. Either way, it's clear that my suggestion is much closer to reality than the existing.
You are trying to prove that it is possible to sell it for 40-45 buds(maybe),let's wait for the actual offer or sale 40-45 buds (40 buds offer 8 months ago).Your arguments are based on assumptions, not facts.It may end up that everyone will suggest prices based on reasoning ~he sold the hat for the 10 buds- my hat is not worse, and price it should be 10 buds.
As usual, it's pointless to debate with you. you have your opinions and i have mine. As we just talked about on the beanie, you tend to like to set values equal to refused offers, I say that if an offer is refused, the item is worth more than that.
I'm trying to get this updated to a price that is much closer to market value than the 29 bud low end. Let's say some rookie unboxes one, comes here, checks the price, notices it is out of date and its 29-37, they figure that it must be lower b/c it's out of date and they sell it for the first 25 bud offer. Which is better, to have a price that **might be a stretch or a price that is obviously too low?
I agree with you that the current price too low-(I say that if an offer is refused, the item is worth more than that),Me just do not like your method assumptions (no facts, transactions), I am afraid that all (those who do not understand why price Sunbeams Team Captain ~50 buds) will begin to Use it in price suggestion.I'll try to find some facts(trade or offer)
Information is really very little.I would still wait for real trade or offers on these hats(the owners are not in a hurry to sell them), http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/17838 - owner of the hat - not sold, http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/24997 - second owner - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/3502430,
Yep, I went over the lack of data in my last suggestion. Thanks for trying :) That's why you have to use the limited comps, trading experience and judgement to do updates for most of these God tier hats. I have gave this my best effort and i think this range is better that the existing considering all the (limited) evidence.
JWB has said numerous times he is not selling his ever. Deco seems convinced that KE is every bit as good as the TC, hence his 60 bud b/o. Maybe when he puts it on the market next time we can get more data, but in the meantime we gotta work with what we got. :L
(That's why you have to use the limited comps, trading experience and judgement to do updates for most of these God tier hats.)- Do you have experience in trading and in this issue you can trust ,I do not want everything started building their price based on assumptions.( Maybe when he puts it on the market next time we can get more data) -here I agree
Obviously I don't have experience in trading these hats. Like 4 ppl do. Reality is that only these supre rare, god tier hats need the judgement call from experienced traders/PCr's. I think ppl do a good job of crushing the non-proof suggestions for the most part. It's really only these 30+ bud hats that don't go on the market much that need logical, subjective analysis.
I think it would be unwise to wait months for him to put it up again to update it. We should update with what we have now and adjust it again later imo.
(Obviously I don't have experience in trading these hats)-I mean just trade,
(I think it would be unwise to wait months for him to put it up again to update it)-Now these hats are not sold - the price of a hat is not claimed(those who are able to pay for this hat is not new to the trade and the prices they know better than us)
A lot of old info. From it, the low range is supported. The high range is speculative, but upheld by strong tier/hat comparisons. I'd say this is the best possible range for this hat at this time.
Because a degree of speculation is involved, I'll let another admin have a look and give their thoughts.
(A lot of old info. From it, the low range is supported. The high range is speculative, but upheld by strong tier/hat comparisons) -Here I agree with you
alot better than "48-58" :P
Speculation is really all you can do with unusuals like this.
Your reasoning is good enough, rejected 40 but give it enough time and it can reach 45.
EDIT: oh and the scorching price probably was accepted to early : P