With the fluctuating price of keys, it's hard to know what some of these prices are, but I've given keys the value of 3.33 so we get a cleaner range. Hard with no sold ones shown, these definitely go unsold at 4.33, it's hard (but not impossible) to sell at 4 ref, and it's not that difficult to get at around 3.66.

4.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8236753 - Unsold for 4.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8188797 - Unsold for 4.33

4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8196364 - Selling for 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8278796 - Selling for 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8270106 - Selling for 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8277210 - Selling for 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8276871 - Selling for 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8252270 - Selling for 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8269580 - Selling for 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7884184 - Sold for 4 ref

3.66

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8271310 - Selling for 1 key + 1 rec

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8273964 - Selling for 1 key + 1 rec

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8266276 - Selling for 1 key + 1 rec

Definitely needs a bump down, probably will fall to a key eventually.